Immy's Corner [The Setup The Hunt - T20's and more]

[immy]

SETUP ONE EXAMPLE ON M5/M1

Although this picture is of m1/m5 do not fora second doubt whether it will work on other time frame combinations. Yes this setup works on any time frame combinations. The only difference is that if you are trading anything above M15 you don't need to display the pair as split screen as in the picture. You can have multiple pairs and since you have more time on your hands as opposed to m1/m5 you can switch time frame to the next 5x higher time frame and roll. In fact as long as you obey the rules of the purple you can stay on the same time frame of trading e.g. if you're trading h1 just s tay on h1 and follow the rules of the setup you should do really well in the long run.

The following picture is a good example of Setup 1

AIMS The Setup.png

In the picture below you'll see M1 and M5 chart side by side. M1 is to the right. As you can see this setup is formed when m5 trend is pretty much obvious and confirmed. Its going in one direction, that is down. So no need to worry just take the setup on m1 and let it do its thing

27-01-2015 12-40-25.png

The following picture is the same trade setup with different template

27-01-2015 12-49-17.png

[immy]

SETUP ONE EXAMPLE ON M5/M1

Although this picture is of m1/m5 do not fora second doubt whether it will work on other time frame combinations. Yes this setup works on any time frame combinations. The only difference is that if you are trading anything above M15 you don't need to display the pair as split screen as in the picture. You can have multiple pairs and since you have more time on your hands as opposed to m1/m5 you can switch time frame to the next 5x higher time frame and roll. In fact as long as you obey the rules of the purple you can stay on the same time frame of trading e.g. if you're trading h1 just s tay on h1 and follow the rules of the setup you should do really well in the long run.

The following picture is a good example of Setup 1

AIMS The Setup.png

In the picture below you'll see M1 and M5 chart side by side. M1 is to the right. As you can see this setup is formed when m5 trend is pretty much obvious and confirmed. Its going in one direction, that is down. So no need to worry just take the setup on m1 and let it do its thing

27-01-2015 12-40-25.png

The following picture is the same trade setup with different template

27-01-2015 12-49-17.png

Follow Up - The result of the trade in the above post.

The trade was simple trade. You only had to follow the exit signals. There were 3 choices there. Follow the black dot (green line close) for exit, or trail aims levels in the beginning stages of the trade and lookout for Fruit if price pulls away from gator. I choose to exit on the fruit when 1. price pulled away from gator considerably, it was not below the aims box on m5 and profit was good, a good multiple of my initial risk that 35 pips as compared to initial risk taken which was around 15 pips. A 1:2 Risk Reward is good by the definition of any trading strategy. of course Fruit is something that can give you 1:4 on average but that is a different story.

Note 1. Now if you're just beginning you should have got out here. At the black dot. and it is perfectly fine. Because this is the exit signal. There will be setups where if you following the green line close that is the black dot, you'll get 50 to 150 pips from one trade with only one entry. But if you chose to follow the red line or trail aims levels

[immy]

"Random Outcome Consistent Results"
This is my favourite quote

[12:43:12] Immy AIMS: A coin toss is the best, simplest and easiest to understand example of this.

[12:44:27 | Edited 12:44:44] Immy AIMS: Random outcome, consistent result. you don't know if hte next toss will be heads or tails. but you know that over a large enough sample size the result will always be "consistently" the same 50 50 chance of heads or tails. no matter who runs this test regardless of geographic location. anywhere in the world
[12:45:55] Immy AIMS: each individual toss coin is statiscally independent of the other tosses. meaning its a unique event.
[12:46:24] Immy AIMS: but the chance of heads or tails is 50% that is a statically reliable pattern.
[12:47:27 | Edited 12:47:40] Immy AIMS: now all of a sudden if you set additional rules pertaining to heads of tails things will change. e..g you bet that you'll lose 1 point if you get tails but you will make twice as much that is 2 points when its heads. you have formula that will make you millions.
[12:52:01 | Edited 12:52:17] Immy AIMS: based on above , each setup that you identify is A unique Event just like the toss of coin. the outcome of this given trade is unique, unknown at the time of signal. but the results of 100 trades are statistically reliable. 50 50 with 1 ratio 3 (cat) winners.

"the degree by which you THINK you KNOW, Assume you know, or in any way NEED to know about whatever is going to happen next =
The degree to which you will fail as a trader."
[13:08:52] Immy AIMS: as long as you don't understand the above, you will be an avid analyist. you will have 30 charts up. you will have 3 different news feeds, you will be chatting in 10 chatrooms. you will be analysing the markets enldessly and meanwhile still losing.
[13:09:30] Immy AIMS: You will be stressed at each sight of the opportunity to get in to a trade , during the trade and at the end of a trade.
[13:09:53] Darren: true
[13:10:48] Immy AIMS: in doing so you will eventually catch an addiction of "random winners". You'll be dancing at the end of a winning trade and cursing the whole world at the end of a losing trade or a series of losers.

[immy]

Afternoon Sermon!

If you find yourself vulnerable to making mistakes managing trades. Try the following technique to remain disciplined. In order to be disciplined you have to have some mantras that you can repeat to yourself during managing trades so that you don't make mistakes. e.g if the mind wants you to do something about the "problem" it is perceiving on the chart. this is what I do. I say, "I don't give a shit" works for me It means I will get out when my stop lsos is hit otherwise I don't give a shit, I'm in it to win it.
[14:35:33] Immy AIMS: Risk on the M5 trade is only 7 pips now.
[14:35:40] Immy AIMS: and potential profit is unlimited.
[14:36:21] Immy AIMS: "The Cause of Fear, the belief, is not always true, but FEAR is".
[14:37:23] Immy AIMS: meaning if you shit yourself because you got scared , the reason why got scared may or may not be real or true but you shit yourself and now you stink and must cleanup.
[14:38:14] Immy AIMS: "We can know what our edge looks like, we can know exactly how much we are going to risk on this trade" we can know this. But we cannot KNOW what will be the outcome of this trade.
[14:39:32] Immy AIMS: "consistency results from a Care-Free Objective State of Mind".
[14:40:03] Immy AIMS: To be care free means to be confident but not euphoric or reckless.
[14:40:34] Immy AIMS: We make ourselves available to "perceive" and Act Upon what ever the market makes available from the "markets perspective".
[14:40:52] Immy AIMS: The above must be part of your core "trading belief system".
[14:42:24] Immy AIMS:

1. anything can happen in the market"
2. you do not need to know what's going to happen next in order to make money
3. there is a random distribution between wins and losses, this makes trading a probability and numbers game.
4. an edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5. Ever Moment in the Market is Unique.

The above must be part of your core "trading belief system".

[14:42:30] Immy AIMS: Afternoon Sermon OVER1

[immy]

Know the rules and play better than others

[immy]

Setup 1 on H1 EUR/USD

[immy]

so which one do you take?

You have two options.

Aggressive Strategy, and statistically more viable is to trade all four and take setups as and when they appear.

Conservative but a bit subjective: choose 1 or max 2 out of the 4 or 6 that you watch on h1. You would select the ones taht sets up properly and appears to give you the lowest risk entry. e.g. a setup on EUR/USD with 20 pip SL and is better than the one with 40 pip SL.

[Tomi]

On M1 I would go for lowest spreads, that would be EU and UJ in my case. In this particular case I would take EU as it looks the best setup to my eyes. Tight saddle point and first break of AIMS. GU I wouldn't take anyway as it doesn't look that good to me. Just weekend opinions.

[wiseambitions]

I presume the question relates to which setup would have interested you 7 or 10 candles back based on classic entries?

I'd eliminate UJ on basis of height of Aims box, eliminate CHF if only because it did nasty things to some people 2 months ago (!), and try and choose between euro dollar and pound dollar

Then of the two, go for EURUSD on the basis both aims boxes were fairly similar height but the gator on the euro was more convincingly asleep after feeding (blue line on sterling chart was not wound up with red and green). I think that's what Tomi meant when he said GU doesnt look that good to him

[immy]

Thank you Ray, Tomi and Sam for your answers.

Anyone else want to share what is the best setup for you?