Herbert's trades for discussion

[Herbert]

Hey! Though you guys are anytime welcome to visit good 'ol SA, please do not litter my thread unless you wanna talk RUGBY..... Grant, u guys are up in June.....
then...... the Wallabies in August... the green wave is coming... )

[Herbert]

Immy - ) My mantras, or axioms as i call them, are effective anywhere, especially this one:
Axiom: Goodness and badness, beautifulness and ugliness are alike considerations and have no other basis than opinion.

While analytically I was resolving hitherto misaligned datapoints for trader happiness, your aesthetic post had my higher aesthetic mind appreciate the nebulous field of art and creation we are engaged in, which itself is the quality of communication. Thanks for that.. (*)

Hope u did not cut euro too early.... B-)
Herbert

[Herbert]

Great trades all around!! Well done to those posted!!
I can imagine how many "new" bogus strategies will see the light as the holy grail with latest PA. Basically you can hit sell and win..... )

Below is reading I stumbled upon which i find interesting to share for those who have not come across it yet (dated - 2009).
It clearly show similarities/analogy of market structure as we trade it using AIMS and elliot fractal structures.

This is from a programmer/trader etc. who calls herself TudorGirl. She also bake pie and irons while imparting all this ) I quote:

I have a First in Mathematics and a PhD in Astrophysics. I work freelance for the European Space Agency and NASA and have written code for the Space Shuttle.

Guys

Some "light" Sunday reading for you....

I have been playing with an idea for some time that has now come to fruition thanks to this thread. It will take this approach to the stratosphere (and believe me, I know where the stratosphere is....)

Although it is by no mean obvious, there is a very close analogy between "anti-persistent" markets and hydrodynamic turbulence in fluid flow at high Reynolds Numbers.

Nearly all markets (stocks, commodities, futures, etc) are "persistent" and do not work with this idea. But almost uniquely, the FOREX market is "anti-persistent". This is great for us as we can exploit the connection to turbulence in fluid flow.

When you put energy into a fluid system at the macro level, like stirring a bucket of water, the energy is transferred down the physical scale to smaller and smaller dimensions - smaller and smaller eddies and vortices - until it dissipates as heat due to viscosity. The exact physics governing this is horrendously difficult and solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations are one of the 3 "grand challenge" problem in all science.

But 40 years ago the great Kolmogorov came up with an approximate solution that works really well. It is known as the Kolmogorov Energy Cascade and describes the transfer of energy down the dimensions by a 5/3 scale-free power law.

Amazingly, it turns our to be the same law for the FX market! This was first noticed about 10 years ago and published as a paper in the world's top science journal Nature. (You have to have a subscription to Nature to read the article but I think I have a PDF somewhere that I will post if I can find it...) The paper was largely forgotten but it is worth a read - there is minimum mathematics!! I have fully developed this theory and am now ready to put it into practice.

It turns out that ENERGY in the fluid correponds to VOLATILITY in the market, and DISTANCE in the fluid corresponds to TF in the market. So the market gets INFORMATION input at the highest level like the news announcements on Friday. Then this information cascades down the timeframes to the lowest (tick) level, where it is eventually dissipated due to broker spread etc (corresponding to fluid viscosity).

Put simply... All of you have opened a chart on a pair and clicked thru the timeframes, M1, M5, M15, M30, ... and seen, noise, noise, noise, AHA!! a smoothish trend!!, noise, noise, ....

Why does this happen? What you have done is by chance found the timeframe where the volatility cascade just happens to self-cancel, producing a smooth (non-turbulent, ie laminar) flow. You can observe this in a fast-flowing river too. The eddies suddenly come together and cancel out, producing a patch of smooth flow.

[Herbert]

Here is a Nature - 2006 PDF elaborating: Turbulent cascades in foreign exchange markets.
Herbert

"the behaviour of long-term traders influences the behaviour of short-term traders" - Now we know that Immy's posted daily trade charts provided some very good 1min setups.... )

Ghashghaie-TurbulentCascadesinFX-Nature-1996.pdf

[Tomi]

Hey Herb......stunning image you had! I have photography as one of my hobbies and your image really stopped. Liked the colors, composition, atmosphere and of course the huge looking moon over there. Enjoy your nice views!

[Herbert]

Hey Tomi :-h Great to hear from you!!

Everybody fell asleep while reading that document??? Almost put me in a coma... (rofl)
Herbert

[Tomi]

Hah, I tried to read the document and understood maybe 1% of the context. Perhaps the critical information was that one Or it was 1% risk level fulfilled like in trading....to protect from brain damage and mental SL was hit. Then tried to read turbulence stuff from wikipedia but quickly continued reading Market Wizards... much easier reading before fall to sleep. Have fun!

[immy]

"the behaviour of long-term traders influences the behaviour of short-term traders" - Now we know that Immy's posted daily trade charts provided some very good 1min setups.... )

(party) The Return of EU!

[immy]

Herbert

I'll share a personal experience. I have observed myself for a few years now before I found myself. Though I'm still searching to meet and chat with my real self (rofl) (A spiritual journey that may continue for a long time) I learn that whenever I go through information that radically changes my belief system, stuff that may give me paradigm shifts, it knocks me real hard. I fall asleep instantly. I researched this and found out that it is possible that during the new incoming information "chaos" the brain has to form billions of new neural connections. That stuff does require energy and so when you take the input you may fall asleep. Other times it happens is when you enter a very peaceful state of mind, the peace wavelength of the mind if you like, it puts you to sleep. I have not read this document yet, but when it comes to Turbulence and Chaos, I'm highly interested. I am a believer that Linear mathematical models, and geometry cannot measure turbulence. And human mind is not stable. It is highly unstable and chaotic. It is indeed a product of chaos and hence the markets, are also chaotic, and that is because its the human mind that has created the market in the firs place. Now if we use linear geometric tools to measure it, we would be disappointed. anyway, I must focus on trading now. bye for now.

[Herbert]

Hey Immy.
Thanks for sharing your experience. I find your posts and views extremely refreshing. I welcome your discussions, as you mentioned, the market is man-made as many other things before considered beyond his comprehension and with study, tends to allow a deeper understanding of market behaviour and the problems associated with it.

I have had similar spiritual experiences with different viewpoint. As i mentioned before i do not regard the brain anything more than a carbon driven switchboard through which the mind operate our physical intended actions. The brain's neuron count is very limited in comparison to the amount of data the average person computes, where-as the human mind and higher appears to answer up to this. A fully functional individual have a total of 57 simultaneous perceptions or channel inputs to process and record.

I took part of a study group who studied "How to study" (rofl) In application I had a colleage who, while studying, started to get drowsy and simply started to fall asleep against his best intentions. Part of the study application was then where i had to guide the student over the materials just studied, testing and troubleshooting for earliest good comprehension of materials until said comprehension would fade into incorrect understanding. This is called word-clearing. After some troubleshooting in this manner, under guidance, the student recovers the mis-understood word after which his comprehension of materials returned immediately and the sleepy/drowsy conditions vanished, leaving him wide awake and alert.

The mind, when concepts are introduced that is not fully understood or is false, would then attenuate in it's capacity until these are resolved. Very similar as to your observation.

It reminds one of the phenomena where people sometimes"take a book to bed" to read until they fall asleep with it.. )

Thought (mind), is wholly concerned with motion, assessment and prediction of it. Observation of Chaos.
My view of the human mind surpasses the laws of mathematics as a lower order or reality, so yeah, no disappointment expected....

Herbert