Joel's Journal

[raklian]

Trade: B1-T17
Date: 10/18/2018
Pair / TF: GBPCAD H4
Signal Type: S0 LONG (Thought it was a S1)

Thoughts and Feelings: When I took this trade, I was focused on the fact there was a nice W3-W4 setup pattern. After discussing with Immy, it turns out I forgot to consider the intricacies of the gator's movements around the AIM box. Immy immediately pointed out that the gator was not completely contained inside the box which is one of the basic requirements for a valid Setup 1. I forgot this simple fact. Also, the purple line was inside the box as well. That makes it a setup 0.

DS0
Total DS: 10/17 (58.8%)
R:R – 1:1 with no BE
Trade Outcome: SL -1R

R result to date for this batch: +3R

[raklian]

Trade: B1-T18
Date: 10/18/2018
Pair / TF: AUDJPY H4
Signal Type: S1 SHORT

Thoughts and Feelings: There was a setup pattern, so I took the trade. Just didn't work out at the end.

Maybe I could have placed the PO at the level to the left.

NEXT.


DS1
Total DS: 11/18 (61.1%)
R:R – 1:1 with no BE
Trade Outcome: SL -1R

R result to date for this batch: +2R

[raklian]

Trade: B1-T19
Date: 10/17/2018
Pair / TF: AUDUSD H4
Signal Type: S0 SHORT

Thoughts and Feelings: A trade called by Immy in the chat. There was a clear 3-4 wave setup pattern, so I took the trade even though it was a Setup 0.

Normally, I would give myself a DS0 for this dereliction of sticking with Setup 1 signals only but the 3-4 wave setup pattern was very clear and the Wave 4 AO was shallow and consolidating slowly more southward. It was ripe to go down south, not that I had a crystal ball that it would.

DS1
Total DS: 12/18 (66.7%)
R:R – 1:1 with no BE
Trade Outcome: TP +1R

R result to date for this batch: +3R

[raklian]

Trade: B1-T20
Date: 10/22/2018
Pair / TF: US500 Index H4
Signal Type: S1 SHORT

Thoughts and Feelings: Felt pretty good about the last trade of my very first batch. There was a clear Wave 3-4 setup pattern and it started to head towards TZ1 after a relatively stable consolidation period. I entered at the box breakout after the second red dot. The pair quickly reversed after hitting the TP.

DS1
Total DS: 13/20 (65%)
R:R – 1:1 with no BE
Trade Outcome: TP +1R

R result to date for this batch: +4R

[raklian]

Trading stats for Batch 1

Wins: 12 trades
Losses: 8 trades
Win rate: 12/20 = 60%

Not too shabby for a batch riddled with amateur mistakes.

However, my win rate is not important at this point. My discipline score is 65% (13/20), so I still have to work on improving on my consistency.
I’ve more or less got the hang of the basic rules for Setup 1/2, but there are nuances in trading these Setup 1s that I’m beginning to notice that I thought weren’t critical but do in fact give me an edge if I keep applying them consistently.

1. I have better edge if the Wave 3 peak has quite bit of distance to the entry, hence the rule of ensuring that the move to the left is not too close to the entry.
2. I have better edge if the AO wave 4 is shallow almost to the point of being flat and that’s after a strong Wave 3 move.
3. I have better edge if the entry AIM box is very narrow to give me at least 1R between the entry and Wave 3 peak
4. I have better edge if the distance to TZ1 is at least 2R
5. I have better edge if the pair has reversed from a resistance zone at least twice and I place TP under that zone
6. I have better edge if Wave 4 doesn’t have strong impulsive moves, rather the ideal move is the one that languishes in a horizontal manner

About Setup 0, I need to stop trading these although I've won some trades with them. For now, I should trade Setup 2s that occur in subsequent boxes after a Setup 0 signals a trade. If I follow this rule, I get a DS1.

For the 2nd batch, I hope to apply those nuances to improve my win rate and push my DS above 80%. If that’s going to give me fewer trades, so be it.

[raklian]

Trade: B2-T1
Date: 10/19/2018
Pair / TF: GBPCAD H4
Signal Type: S0 SHORT

Thoughts and Feelings: A valid Setup 0 called by Immy in the signal channel. When I took the trade, I didn't follow my rule not to trade Setup 0 unless there is a subsequent Setup 2. Giving myself a DS0.

DS0
Total DS: 0/1 (0%)
R:R – 1:1 with no BE
Trade Outcome: SL -1R

R result to date for this batch: -1R

Overall R result: +3R

[raklian]

Trade: B2-T2
Date: 10/22/2018
Pair / TF: US30 Index H4
Signal Type: S1 SHORT

Thoughts and Feelings: This is a clear trade, strong Wave 3 and a shallow Wave 4. There is a horizontal consolidation at the latter half, so I had to take this trade.

DS1
Total DS: 1/2 (50%)
R:R – 1:1 with no BE
Trade Outcome: SL +1R

R result to date for this batch: 0R

Overall R result: +4R

[raklian]

Trade: B2-T3
Date: 10/22/2018
Pair / TF: AUDJPY H4
Signal Type: S1 SHORT

Thoughts and Feelings: Very shallow AO wave 4, and took the trade at the box barely touching the purple line and the gator flat.

DS1
Total DS: 2/3 (66%)
R:R – 1:1 with no BE
Trade Outcome: SL +1R

R result to date for this batch: +1R

Overall R result: +5R

[raklian]

Trade: B2-T4
Date: 10/23/2018
Pair / TF: CADJPY H4
Signal Type: S2 SHORT

Thoughts and Feelings: Very shallow AO wave 4, gator flat and just contained in a very tight box. TZ1 was more than twice the distance away. TP hit in just three bars.

DS1
Total DS: 3/4 (75%)
R:R – 1:1 with no BE
Trade Outcome: TP +1R

R result to date for this batch: +2R

Overall R result: +6R

[immy]

Trading stats for Batch 1

Wins: 12 trades
Losses: 8 trades
Win rate: 12/20 = 60%

Not too shabby for a batch riddled with amateur mistakes.

However, my win rate is not important at this point. My discipline score is 65% (13/20), so I still have to work on improving on my consistency.
I’ve more or less got the hang of the basic rules for Setup 1/2, but there are nuances in trading these Setup 1s that I’m beginning to notice that I thought weren’t critical but do in fact give me an edge if I keep applying them consistently.

1. I have better edge if the Wave 3 peak has quite bit of distance to the entry, hence the rule of ensuring that the move to the left is not too close to the entry.
2. I have better edge if the AO wave 4 is shallow almost to the point of being flat and that’s after a strong Wave 3 move.
3. I have better edge if the entry AIM box is very narrow to give me at least 1R between the entry and Wave 3 peak
4. I have better edge if the distance to TZ1 is at least 2R
5. I have better edge if the pair has reversed from a resistance zone at least twice and I place TP under that zone
6. I have better edge if Wave 4 doesn’t have strong impulsive moves, rather the ideal move is the one that languishes in a horizontal manner

About Setup 0, I need to stop trading these although I've won some trades with them. For now, I should trade Setup 2s that occur in subsequent boxes after a Setup 0 signals a trade. If I follow this rule, I get a DS1.

For the 2nd batch, I hope to apply those nuances to improve my win rate and push my DS above 80%. If that’s going to give me fewer trades, so be it.

Congratulations on completing your batch. That is truly a great achievement. Trust me 95% of people CANNOT keep a journal or complete a batch.

You should treat yourself.



Agree with all the points. And must I add, you're the first person who truly understood Setup 2 application.

Well deserved Stage 1 Rank Badge ...

cheers