Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

Flatlining, Sell off and more Flatlining?

Flatlining.jpg

[kiravon]

or Consolidating? Time will tell....

consolidation.jpg

[kiravon]

Doji Respecting Green but AO Divergence

Not so much a trade but rather a running commentary

Divergence.jpg

[kiravon]

Out for 7 pips

A combination of AO Divergence and Gator
now opening sideways gives me no confidence.
So I'm cutting my losses on this one

I really don't think its going anywhere

AO Sideways.jpg

[kiravon]

Cross of Moving Averages -What a cliche!

but Gator now crossed and opened to the upside at last supported
by the fresh cross of ZL on AO

seed.jpg

[kiravon]

And Lo a nice +79 Pip win!

The last trade of the week finally paid off after three mishaps.

+79 pip to TP and 25 pip SL

I went out and when I came back home the tooth fairy
had been at work again it seems

I really seem to do a lot better setting TP at likely support/resistance
and simply going out and forgetting about it

final trade.jpg

[kiravon]

Earn as you Learn!

I am not so pleased by the 79 pip win but rather by my
decision to place TP a little under likely resistance and also
three pips under under BRN of 120.00 ( actually 120.00 isn't
technically a BRN but it was near resistance so I thought I would
stay a little under it. )

Looking at the chart it looks like I got that spot on!

So when we make mistake after mistake its only
of any value if we take careful note of where we went wrong,
thats how we learn and improve our trading skills.

Similarly when we make a good decision we should take
equal note of that and remember to do something very
similar in the future

For example, a year ago I don't know where I would have put TP

all I know for sure is that it would have been in the wrong place!

But we should really congratulate ourselves on every baby step
forward, it all adds to our overall progress.

I read Kyle's recent entries with interest. I was aware his trading
was not as profitable as he would have liked but had no idea
what the cause of the problem could be.

but after reading of the heavy weight he must have on his mind
I am amazed when he says he hasn't blown his account! If he is
still hanging in with so much on his plate I am confident his
profits will soar when everything settles down emotionally.

I think its so helpful when guys are so candid, warts and all, we
see it is very much a pilgim's progress, we are all bound for a
common destination

and we will all get there after many trials and tribulations

Only quitters fail!

BRN.jpg

[kiravon]

Here Endeth my Summer Recess T20 Trades

C1 +170 pips DS 1
C2 +45 pips DS 1
C3 +221 pips DS 1
C4 -6 pips DS 1
C5 BE DS 1
C6 +3 DS 1 SL -6/+3
C7 +40 DS 0 SL 12/12
C8 +41 DS 0 SL 28/10
C9 -8 DS 0 add on taken in error!
C10 +22 DS 1 SL -12/+22
C11 +30 DS 1 SL -19/+21
C12 -28 DS 1 SL 28/28
C13 -13 DS 0 SL 13/13
C14 +17 DS 1 SL -7/+14
C15 +16 add on DS 1 SL+7/+10
C16 BE DS 1
C17 -16 DS 1 SL 16
C18 -12 DS 1 SL 12
C19 -7 DS 1 SL 7
C20 +79 DS 1 SL 25

Duration August 24th - October 2nd = 5 weeks

Total Profit +591
Winners (11) 55%
Losers (7) 35%
BE (2) 10%
Average win +62
Average lose -13
DS 16/20

A remarkable result considering 20% of trades were
undisciplined and I wasn't technically trading during
the summer months, during which I might add we had
long heatwaves of +40 degrees Celsius!!

Could that be the Holy Grail?

Trade in the Tropics!

As of Monday I will be back to my normal trading routine
until next May and over the next seven months my goal
is to really get this nailed down! I did fantastic when I first
started with AIMS and I've done pretty good over the
Summer.

On both occasions I was basically just piddling about, not
getting too intense, not taking that many trades.

The problem seems to be when we do get too intense.
Brian Tracy speaks of 'The Law of Relaxation' or 'The
Law of Reversed Effort' which states in effect that that
harder you try to accomplish something mentally the
more the actual results are diminished.

So we need to have a very relaxed attitude, 'take it or
leave it' attitude even. That is all really encompassed
by being 'in the zone' or 'in the flow'

I want to really nail down two or three related strategies
that follow trend. I am absolutely not a Fruitarian even
though I do completely get the concept.

I don't mind mix and match of rules. I just had an
excellent example of that

Grant's Seed rules include waiting for AO to peak and then
retrace to support a Seed along with Gator opened up/down
whereas S2 setup is looking for a fresh cross of ZL. Both AO
rules seem interchangable to me.

In the +79 win above for example strictly speaking we should
have had a peak and retrace of AO. Instead we had a fresh cross
of ZL which still worked out well.

Gator opened up/down same direction on both TFs is inviolable, in
other words if Gator is pointing down and something is indicating
a possible up move we may be really pushing our luck ( Valid Fruits
excepted ).

Likewise divergence of price with AO is a red light.

Above all my goal is to be so relaxed in my trading that I can happily
pass over the myriad of setups that seem to have a good chance
and only trade those that get me excited, where I have no reservations,
where I can see in my mind's eye how things should pan out, whilst
retaining the mental flexibility to quickly adapt when things don't
go quite as expected.

Actually it has just occurred to me that my greatest asset could be
my greatest liability

During the winter I have plenty of time to trade, in the summer I am
very busy and can't be in front of the screen for very long

Yet 'working' the LO religiously every day didn't work out too well
for me. Nothing wrong with LO, thats where the volatility is, and
nothing necessarily wrong with the shorter TFs, but looking back
I would have to admit that generally I was not trading in a relaxed
frame of mind

and I see that now as key

Also I note with some satisfaction my average win/loss pippage
was 62/13 which roughly equates to a RR of 1:4.7

it really brings home to me the need to really be strict with RR
and to, like Grant, move the SL as soon as is viable to minimize risk

If we preempt the big losses we may likely find ourselves
winning by default

and another fact that I read late last night - the M1 and M5 have
advantages without doubt but often RR is 1:1 or 1:2 etc but didn't
Immy say that one of the advantages of the higher TFs is the
RR can be 1:25 or even 1:100!!!!!

actually I might have dreamed that. I'd better check

[kiravon]

The Monarch Pattern
I had wondered what it was

TheMonarch.png

[kiravon]

AA corective or impulsive.jpg

Can someone confirm this AA rule[/color][/size][/b]
We reject impulsive W4 because that might indicate
its not W4, similar to the 23% - 61% Fib rule?