Mickey's Journal

[immy]

1. 2 positions does not mean risk 1% each. But if you do it that way, you're simply risking 2% and closing half at a certain point. When we apply a closing half money management plan there are objectives behind it. My main objective would be a. allow the trade have room to breath b. the reason for a is so that I can look for very big trades. and c. a and b are done so that we could add on to the trend. Its a swing trading plan where we build structures of free trades and allow them to run for a very long time.
2. If you take 2 positions for only 2 or 3:1 , there will be no significant difference. But that once you close half at say 1:1 or 2:1 it becomes "mentally" easier for you to let the trade hit a larger profit target such as 5:1 even if it pulls back more than usual.

IMHO.

[kiravon]

yes, but for me it has to be balanced with twice as much to
think about, when more thinking may not be the way forward

Overriding all my above verbage is the need for simplicity.
Optimization is great only when you actually have something
to optimize - then test it on demo

[kiravon]

elliott wave.jpg

[kiravon]

I think I'm possibly in a Famous setup, on the EURGBP
based on the above illustration - otherwise look what the
imagination can do!

I seem to have identified Wave 4 but still can't understand
why ewave calls it a 'bad 4' in a black circle? Does that
mean yet another false reading, because there are a lot of
these 'bad 4s' or is it simply stating that all genuine Wave 4's
are bad because they are choppy etc?

I'm expecting a breakout to the downside to be Wave 5,
which is the famous setup? I would really like to get this
right

Trade 14

famous eg.jpg

EG EW 27.PNG

Trying to make sense of the Dax. - the five waves within Wave 3?
Wave 3 within 3 is the longest, right? if so it might all make sense

dax 27 elliott.jpg

if so, a breakout to the upside on H1 could be Wave 5 and another
Famous setup?

Famous Dax.jpg

and same thing on AUDUSD M5, even assuming I labelled the W3 correctly,
W4 is much easier to see in hindsight

it's not clear to me that W4 is completed yet. I have put ABC of
W4 in two possible places

ew 5min.jpg

COULD IT BE THAT BAD WAVE 4 IS WHERE IT EXCEEDS 50% RETRACEMENT?

Bad 4.jpg

[kiravon]

Trade 14 -1% rent. more infamous than Famous
I think I will have to leave Famous until I can tell when
W4 ends. its seems I can't

but something easier for me, and a win would be nice!

a RAO PIB M5 confluent H1 direction

Trade 15

27 rao pib.jpg

[Tomi]

Trying to make sense of the Dax. - the five waves within Wave 3?
Wave 3 within 3 is the longest, right?

You had many issues in the post, let me comment partly one thing. By definition of elliot wave rules wave 3 doesn't have to be the longest. Rule is that wave 3 can't be the shortest of impulse waves (waves 1, 3 or 5).

We don't trade elliot wave. It's just there and gives us more confidence to take the trades and to be in tune with the market. It's also nice to give names for certain scenarios to "know" where we are in the waves. It helps to keep the focus in place. However, market can change its plans on any tick and all wave counts could be incorrect until we get another wave count that could be labeled nicely in hindsight. Summa summarum: use the count for your advantage, don't get in love with it and be ready to change the view.

Keep going chap! Good posts.

[kiravon]

Thanks Tomi, trust me I won't get in love with it!

[Tomi]

Thanks Tomi, trust me I won't get in love with it!

Yes yes, platonic love.

[kiravon]

This may be my last permitted trade today if I lose
as three consecutive rents per day is my limit

but that said I believe that PIB on M5 H1 are
quite successful for me up to 1:7

The two losers I had were 1:10 and 1:15 so no
really big surprises there! This one is 1:4 RR with Stop
just under TZ1
Trade 16

27b.jpg

27c.jpg

Screenshot - 27_10_2015 , 06_17_46.png

TZ1 has moved up another 15 pips so I have extended TP to 1:7

27d.jpg

Three consecutive losers and that's definitely it for today.

27 sum.jpg

[immy]

Watch out for your "perception" of

Potential RR and the Actual

"probability of success" of a trade idea/setup