Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

Not got on too well with the 25 EMA cross of green
for exit versus the original price cross of green. Also
any negative crosses on either window could be
heeded.

so I am sticking with the plan to TP at just under pivot and TZ1
unless price crosses green before that

although in days of former glory I had tremendous success on
the M5 when there was volatility to simply trail stop the
last bar. in those circumstances by far the best exit
strategy

price is retracing now and I'm particularly looking at what might
happen between green and AIMS. I think price may retest into
this area before we get the move up.

I'm not letting price reverse further than AIMS because that
is simply too big an indication that price has actually reversed

jpy m5.JPG

[kiravon]

classic rent!

cross back of price over green and break of lower AIMS
plus re cross of blue over yellow on QQE is usually fatal.

rent.JPG

[kiravon]

but one nice win on GU M5 today just +29 pips and I would
like a few more like this if I could win more consistently -

blue arrows are the entry signals and red arrow the exit

entry should be self evident - EMA's crossing, MACD
cross of zero, break of AIMS needless to say, plus
that big bearish momentum bar that broke
AIMS was the clincher

Exit was just above TZ1 and weekly pivot - both since seem
to have relocated.

It worked out well this time

[kiravon]

My H4 AIMS based divergence system is certainly good,
targeting missed weekly pivots or something in that direction
at least. Its been extremely profitable for me now for
several months.

But the originator of the system, not that there is
anything really new under the sun, nevertheless he
urges extreme caution in peak summer, August
in particular adding that his results have always
been somewhat lack lustre in August. I believe
he cites lack of volatility as the culprit.

Consequently I won't be trading my main live
account which is well up in profit but rather
just my micro account for August.

Of course his system doesn't take fractals
into account and his exit is supposedly 50%
distance to pivot.

I look to TZ1, prior AIMS levels etc so my trades
may possibly do better but obviously I don't presume
that. and consider that on the gbpjpy trade below he
might place exit at 50% to pivot which would be
375 pips whereas I am realistically targeting prior
AIMS for 94 pips

of course I will be sick if the 325 pip level is hit
but 'greedy pigs get slaughtered' and most trades
simply don't run on and on forever, and given
the above caution it might be even more the case
in August.

Just two today, eurjpy and gbpjpy on H4. The
entries and exits are quite realistic so we'll see
------------------------
Append

I just cancelled PO for eurjpy. firstly the missed weekly
pivot disappeared although its still showing on other
brokers

but mainly I see no high impact news for eur or jpy
so no confidence price will be moving much - enough to
enter maybe but then just stall and reverse - seen
that enough times without actually planning for it!

gj aug 1.JPG

[kiravon]

I cancelled the GBPJPY PO above as it didn't look like
it was going to be hit.

but I did take a compelling setup on H4 GBPUSD
which lost

it happens but I am now heeding the warning that August
is best avoided. I will monitor but the cardinal rule is-

PRESERVE CAPITAL!

[wiseambitions]

We were discussing exit signals the other day for taking profits

I wish I could attach a chart but I can't immediately, but I refer to m1 of Dax30 and a trade I opened around 1415 BST

It trended up nicely but there were at least 10 candles which the green of gator sliced through
And at least one case where a lower aims level was painted before the price stepped up again

I decided to try the EMA 25 of m1 and reset SL to the closing reading of the previous bar, every minute

Around 1515 it did close me out, around 1515 BST (an hour later) with about 42 pips after 54, so I suppose that wasn't a bad strategy, although by the time I got to this sentence I've noticed the rascal has gone up again (after painting a lower aims level again). Usually the aims levels step up progressively but sometimes they step down and go back up again, perhaps this is what the group call principle C anyway enough of technicality, 40 pips every now and again are enough to keep the equity curve in good shape

2016-08-05_1524_dax_friday_pm.png

[kiravon]

Great trade Ray!

and very basic and simple. Nothing seems to improve
by complicating matters, especially in Forex.

Here's two H1 trades, very basic AIMS with just a little
extra insight thrown in

First trade was simple break of AIMS supported by
the cross of zero on MACD and the exit was simply
the cross back of MACD for 230 pips

Second trade classic bullish divergence supported
by break of AIMS plus cross of zero on MACD
( Or eWAVES which will get you in a bit later )

This is where it gets interesting! Where to exit?

We now have bearish divergence but hang on
until we get the cross of MACD against us for
460 pips a total of 690 pips!

In both cases risk was minimal due small AIMs
boxes but using SP on such trades its very hard to
see how you could possibly lose - rents recouped
almost immediately!

Seriously, just how many rents would you have to incur
for this strategy to not work!

In this instance you would come out hundreds of pips
ahead with a 10% win rate and SP would recoup
any losses very quickly.

aims divergent.JPG

[wiseambitions]

Very nice chart there. I suppose we have to admit that higher time frames don't suffer from so much noise (or slippage at the time of execution) as you get in the often very swift movements of m1. I find (although no optimisation has been applied) settings 6,50,50 suits me better, although there's no fibonacci in it. Bill Williams invented the AO with settings of 5 and 34 both which are fib numbers (I think using simple averages) and he felt kind of exhilarated about that invention together with the settings of the alligator, optimised, he would say, by the PhD brains he put onto the research in early days of mainframe computers, and which discovery he also said kept him from sleeping with the excitement because of the relationship with the fibs.

As you say, it is difficult to see how with the right starting risk that the aims strategy would not work, it is our own discipline which prevents us. In financial services, you may know there are now quite a few passive investments (which don't rely on the stock picking skills of the fund managers) where the idea is to merely track an index (usually FTSE100 or the all-share index - not usually Dax30). What sets one such fund apart from the next, and against the index in question, where comparisons are being made is called "Tracking Error". In other words some fund managers are better than others at immediately reacting to the changes that they need to make in order to follow the behaviour of the index their money is supposed to mirror. If only we could more trustingly and more instantly follow the signals which our system gives us, at the same time take away those silly "I think I know better" attitudes, I am fairly sure we would have smaller tracking errors and we would get better results!

[kiravon]

When I have spare time this is the sort of madness I'm involved in!

Last year I must have trialed over 100 commercial systems,
most were naff or just plain overblown

The very best of the best were:-
Renkomaker Pro
Raitis H1
Strong all in one/Strong Abi
Effortless Abundance

Renkomaker Pro excels in getting in earlier than most systems
and is an amazingly robust system, with Raitis a close second

On this occasion though AIMS really came out well ahead as
the other two gave definite exit signals when AIMS was still in
for an extra 200 pips! nice!

Final score
Renkomaker Pro 210 pips
Raitis 190 pips
AIMS 320 pips (over 400 pips with the obvious add on! )

Renkomaker Pro was in 30 pips ahead of AIMS but as the saying
goes ' He who laughs last laughs longest!'

But the reality is there is no best system only best traders - each of
the above systems will blow your account if psychology or MM is
wrong

Does anyone have any good experience with any system apart from
AIMS? I always try to see if any part of a good system can blend in
with AIMS methodology.

As we see above AIMS doesn't especially need improving, what needs
continual improving is our chart reading skills and comparison of
decent systems is a fun way to enhance our Forex education

Ray, did you receive the message I sent earlier?

comparison.JPG

[kiravon]

What I've noticed with Fractals and pivots is where you also
have an IB or DB it invariably hits the pivot

again with SP how can you go wrong? five out of five set ups
all won for 500 pips

The first and last trade were particularly nice, I'm editing this
post now because it's taken me a day to notice the last trade
was not only a very nice DB but it then proceeded to form
a triangle pattern. So the break of triangle plus break of
AIMS to the downside would normally have been my set up.

However in this case DB to pivot was a good shot and and
the subsequent break of triangle and AIMS was such a powerful
confirmation and a very obvious add on for an extra 100 pips

If anyone thinks that's quite impressive you're probably right
especially if it can be sustained, however I may really need to
get my act together - noticing a triangle and break of AIMS
24 hours after entering the trade is a massive zero
discipline score!

Nevertheless interesting to note the psychological process
at work - I'm so excited by a potentially lucrative strategy
ie IB and DB to pivot strategy that I now cannot see
something as obvious as a triangle and break of AIMS
begging to be traded!

It makes me wonder what else is staring me in the face that
I can't see?

I'll test live this week and will hopefully be a bit more
observant

IBDB.JPG