Sydney Kris' Journal

[Dave]

Super post

[Darren]

Very good post Kris. I find my mind wondering sometimes and find trading can rapidly go downhill if you cannot re-focus. You are absolutely right that the mental side of trading needs constant 'checking' to make sure you are on track!

Brilliant! :-bd

[immy]

One of the Top Ten Posts I've ever read anywhere... Wow! Thanks for sharing.

And let me reiterate. AIMS has Eliott Wave built into it. We feed on Wave 3 and Wave 5 without even knowing it. But we don't trade Elliott Wave we trade Setups. Because Elliott Wave takes you to the future and future is only 50% right. Meaning the wave can predict only 50%, which is great odd but without correct money and risk management everything else means nothing. Our Setup is based on "The Structure of the Market". And that structure is Elliott Wave. We don't have to count. Staying in the Now is the best place to be. The now is all we've got. Its a simple but a little bit harder concept to grasp initially but eventually we all can get in tune with "being in the now". The urge to make money or not lose it just won't keep us in the "now moment of opportunity". We have to learn to do it and posts like these, Kris, help us all to learn to be in the now and be humble in the face of the market. We can never know what market will do in the future 100% but we can have a guess and an idea and we may be right 50% of the time. Thats a huge edge and so if our winners are twice as big as lour losers with 50% odds all of us should make money. But we know we can do better. We know we can hit 60% success rate and even better risk reward. All the best and thanks alot for sharing...

MUST READ POST my friends...

[KrisL]

Thanks everyone for your replies and your support! I feel very lucky to have stumbled upon such a supportive and non-judgmental community (but if I fall into bad habits again and don't learn from my mistakes, feel free to judge away )

So true Immy - we don't need to over-analyse the Elliot wave at every degree to be successful. It is built into our trading system. I guess it is human nature to want to know every detail of how something works, to understand it completely. It is also our nature to over-complicate things.

Mark Douglas says that it is fine to broaden your knowledge of the markets, but you must do it for the right reasons. You are going in the wrong direction if you are learning more in order to be right all the time, to be able to predict the next price movement. The right reason to broaden your market knowledge would be to increase the efficacy of your edge- that is, to increase the odds in your favour. The difference is subtle but profound - the latter is based on probabilities and acknowledges that you can't be right all the time, that you will be wrong for as long as you are involved in the markets, but that you can do very well given enough time and enough opportunities to trade your edge.

I don't think that I can conquer my urge to know more about the markets, but I can work on learning for the right reasons and fostering beliefs that are conducive to huge profits in the long term.

Thanks again for the replies and the support!

Cheers
Kris

[KrisL]

Some better trading and a return to profitability with a campaign on UJ yesterday.

Firstly, an M1 short on UJ early in the day. I was watching this setup all weekend and glad that I took it. My conservative initial stop loss above Friday's close kept me in the trade, but also dampened the profits somewhat.

2014_02_17 uj short.png

Later on I went long. I was stopped out on a BDC and took a small position short with the the BDC, as the higher time frames indicated the down trend might not be finished. This turned into a small loss, but I went long again when the BDC was invalidated. Closed my longs near the top, and tried one more short on the last BDC. Kept my stops tight, and in the end closed my positions as I had had enough by this time.

[KrisL]

A lovely campaign on GU this evening. When price corrects and the AIMS boxes step up with the correction, the first break is a powerful setup. It moved to TZ1 in quick time.

18_gu_short.png

A decent campaign on AU as well, although the initial buy was taken in direct opposition to the pattern I mentioned above. Amazing what our brains perceive sometimes. I decided to get out of this trade when I got a BDC beyond TZ1. Could have ridden it a bit longer in the end, perhaps only closing part rather than the whole position, but it seemed like a reasonable decision at the time.

18_au_short.png

[wiseambitions]

My reading of the Kiwi USD h4 chart suggests we are at the end of a 2 week bull run and the direction of the trend is changing over.
Possible selling opportunity.

[KrisL]

Thanks for the insight Ray. Would you mind going into more detail about why you think this is the case? Are you looking at the stepping AIMS levels within the corrective wave up that I mentioned in my post? I don't know if I agree that that wave up has a corrective character, but I'll take a more detailed look today.

[KrisL]

Hello all, just wanted to post some things about the aussie from the last couple of days. It really offered some great trading opportunities, and danced to Elliot's tune. I'll be looking for setups like these, so I wanted to write about why I like it so much and try to cement it in my brain. I hope you find it useful too. As usual, comments and feedback sought!

Firstly, a bit of context. The move depicted below follows a significant move up - you can see it on the H4 timeframe pretty nicely. The move I'm focusing on is, in my opinion, a corrective A-B-C pattern, with a five wave impulse for waves A and C, and a three wave correction for wave B. Highly tradeable using AIMS entry signals! It acts pretty much exactly the same as a single 5 wave impulse of lower degree from what I can tell.

Wave A ends with a BDC (fruit) candle, but since I expect wave B, I don't enter on this signal. Turns out you could have made a few pips, but its not a high probability setup in my opinion.

As wave B unfolds, it provides more evidence that it is indeed a corrective wave, and not a continuation of the uptrend. Just by looking at the alligator you can see that it is not as impulsive as wave A. We also get the nice stepping lower AIMS levels with the direction of the correction. We see this pattern all the time, and in my opinion it is one of the easiest patterns to trade, as the first break is usually the beginning of the next impulse wave. In this case, I would be happy to take the first break, but the second provides confirmation. Unfortunately it was too early in the morning to catch the move, so I missed it.

Wave C then unfolded to just beyond 0.618 x Wave A as predicted by Elliot wave, with the last move giving that beautiful angulation between price and the alligator. The wave then ends with a BDC (fruit) candle, and this looks like a good time to go long. I took a small position above the BDC and added on at the first fractal break (all this on M15 - manageable while working at the same time).

The way I see it, this BDC is a good setup not only because it ticks all the boxes required by the fruit strategy, but that it also signals the start of the next Elliot wave, and the two most likely next waves are in the same direction! The next wave is most likely to be either an impulsive resumption of the uptrend, or a B wave up. Obviously the B wave up is not an ideal wave to trade, but it would be retracing the ABC wave sequence that I described above (almost 90 pips) and would be reasonably likely to result in a few pips. If its the start of the next impulse, well...happy days! I'll look for add ons.

I love this type of setup - the odds are stacked well and truly in our favour. If only they came along every day...

19_au_short.png

[Silas]

Hi Kris,

thanks a lot for sharing your thoughts and picture. As a newbie it helps me a lot to put it all together
:-bd