Mickey's Journal

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kiravon
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Unread post by kiravon »

Yes Snorm's freebies are good. I came across something very interesting on his site today -
Snorm has a link to Erik's site who hasn't visited AIMS for over two years yet still makes Daily
videos on his site of his AIMS setups.

I don't hesitate to post a link because he is still 100% pure AIMS and can only inspire others,
noteworthy he has been trading AIMS since 2011 and still follows all the rules rigidly!

http://forextrading-tips-advices.blogspot.fr/

He currently is looking to short EU and GU, and long UJ

exactly the same as me, so I'm adding his Signal page to my list of resources. Not to copy them
but to compare my own analysis with his.

6% - 8% profit on a single trade is not unusual! Highly recommended!
Stop searching for the Holy Grail, you've already found it -
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acceleratum
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Re: Mickey's Journal

Unread post by acceleratum »

Yes I know about him, I've watched it a couple times but as everything sometimes my analysis doesn't agree with his, I prefer to follow my ideas =)
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kiravon
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Unread post by kiravon »

Absolutely right! there is a great warning story about not trusting your own judgement in Ray's recent video.

Actually Erik's signals page doesn't really give signals but rather directional bias.

So far it seems to mirror my own. I now have around ten links I check out, some include various analysts. I've already sifted the wheat from the chaff and there is still a lot of repetition but I only skim the headline so its not a problem. For example there is no analyst who feels that PM's Brexit comments might boost confidence in Pound Sterling.

But what I find helpful is to quickly check the pairs I'm following, currently only three, and see what everyone is saying. I only need to see 'Long', 'Short' or 'Neutral' ('Mixed')

I have been anticipating a big drop in EU, hopefully Parity bound but I note the consensus is very clearly neutral now including Erik. I still feel it will drop LT but I completely see what everyone is saying, it can go either way from this key level at the moment.

I can obviously see that for myself but when there is agreement right across the board it tends to give me confidence, and perhaps more importantly reinforces the need to exercise restraint.

What is so good about Erik isn't that he is a better trader than me, or someone who should be followed, but rather, unlike me, who may change his template thrice daily, Eric just sticks at the same old thing day after day year in year out. and it would seem logical to assume he is quite profitable or why would he still be doing it?

So for the many newbies on this site, by virtue of his longevity, he may well be considered something of a veteran AIMS role model. Why he never got involved with journal keeping here or why he decided to setup a non commercial 'AIMS' site is a little curious nevertheless everything he does is 100% 'AIMS' friendly.

and even if we don't need his analysis we certainly need to emulate his record of consistency to have any chance of success.
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kiravon
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First Carry Trade

Unread post by kiravon »

The reason this is my first Carry trade is because I've never even heard of it before.
But I like the sound of it

In case you don't know the object isn't simply to win although that is clearly a very good idea.

But one very desirable outcome could be for example that the trade goes in your favour for several months but ends up almost back where it started maybe for a relatively small profit.

However over the weeks or months you accumulate daily interest on selected currencies.

Of course if the trade makes a lot of pips as well that is obviously the ideal situation.

I've chosen the GBPNZD not because it's the best setup, it isn't, but rather because its in a downtrend on daily, weekly and monthly charts and pound sterling is likely to be in the dog house for the foreseeable future, so I'm hoping it will stay below my entry level until I retire and it will be a nice little nest egg for me, - well it won't be because I'm only experimenting on demo but I like the idea of long term trades that can be highly profitable even if they don't clock up the pips as much as I would have liked.

If anyone is interested in this I've included a chart of the currencies to use and the correct direction. so you would be looking for gators to be agreeing on all the longer time frames right up to monthlies.

I must add I don't really know what I'm doing, it's just something I came across that quite appeals to me -

I opened a yen trade in September which is still doing well, a bit down over the last week but still up around 1,600 pips overall. Now this isn't a Carry trade but it did hit over 1,800 pips

now imagine it reaches 2,000 pips only to keep dropping to 1,500 - and it then stays in that range for a year. Ordinarily you would be somewhat frustrated but if its a Carry trade you are clocking up a lot of daily interest so you don't mind how long it stays range bound - in this case you move stop to BE so you can't possibly lose and the longer you are able to stay in the trade the better.

So its as much about the duration of the trade as much as hitting a specific profit target

in a sense a bit like Binary Options for grown ups
Carry.PNG
carry pairs.PNG
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wiseambitions
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Re: Mickey's Journal

Unread post by wiseambitions »

Hi Mickey

"I must add I don't really know what I'm doing". Made me chuckle. How many people actually do know????????
I haven't forgotten 2 or 3 years ago someone perhaps it was Immy talked about "Chinaman" traders who don't really have a proper system but because of their wits they can actually make a lot of money. I would aspire to being like that !




For your information
I've progressed from talking about crosses of 6 and 50 EMAs per se because of the number of times you have proved they are actually reversal points, however I can't get away from the fact I make money from trading crosses of the blue and red lines of the MACD Histogram. You'd think it comes back to the same thing, but actually it's not quite exactly the same thing. I have amended the MACD variables with the settings 6,50,50. Progress is helped
substantially by a bit of staking. Someone said go away when you've made 3% a day. That's hard to do because the money making potential of this little strategy has become somewhat addictive, today it was 11%, yesterday was even better. Not on my own account though - a little investment run for the benefit of my son! Real money, not pretend. I use the second aims level back as the SL, not the current bottom (or top) of the box, or Donchian 20 bars if nearer to current price than that aims level, and take the profit ad lib. (A cross of EMA25 through the green line of the alligator can be quite a good profit point), I've been doing it all with USDJPY on M1, not indices at all for the last couple of weeks.
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals

[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)

1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]

"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
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kiravon
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' The more you care the worse you fare!'

Unread post by kiravon »

I'm trying it now on GU M1. I have seven layers of AIMS level between entry and stop. 24 pips is a lot for M1 but thats multi resistance whereas a clear run down to TP for 27 pips. Price was definitely moving down steadily and all those prior AIMS levels above should hold far more than stop just above current AIMS

I don't really detest trading M1 - I would love any time frame that yielded consistent wins which so far hasn't been M1 for me.

Another thought is that you may likely trade better for your son although that would be very hard to prove objectively.

Your video was profound when it revealed that no one can succeed following another system, even one that has been back and forward tested to yield 60% or 70% wins with 1:3 RR etc

I don't find fault with anyone who markets a system as performing this well because 1. it shows its potential and 2. its motivating

but it is very strange when we've had guys even here making staggering consistent profits, purely mechanical system - so why can so few emulate these results? theoretically everyone should be able to.

I really think its about coping with loss

I just found a great article on this - and I absolutely don't recommend his service, thats not the point.

but he stresses that 'The more you care the worse you fare'

thats my poem by the way based on his insight.

which is precisely why I am a multi demo millionaire but not so great on live accounts. Its unmistakeable!

-----------------------------------------

' The more you care the worse you fare!'

It doesn’t matter how much money you have, it doesn’t matter how good of a technical analyst you are, and it doesn’t matter how much you ‘think’ you know about trading, if you don’t have the right mindset, you will never make money in the market.
Your success or failure in the market depends on your mindset. Most traders know something about how important psychology is in trading, but they either file it away as something they’ll ‘work on later’, or they just ignore it altogether. Huge mistakes. HUGE.
If you’re trading with the wrong mindset, it doesn’t matter if you have fifty grand in risk capital to trade with and you’ve mastered your trading strategy, you’re still going to fail. No strategy and no amount of money will make you money if you don’t have your head right about trading.

Let’s discuss a few of the more important aspects of trader psychology that you need to understand if you want to achieve a trading mindset that will prime you for lasting success in the market…
Money and mindset

Whether you think it does or not, risking money in the market influences your mindset. The most important factor in achieving and maintaining the proper trading mindset, is carefully managing your risk on every trader you take.
Risking more than you are comfortable with, will ‘infect’ all other aspects of your trading and it will start you out with the wrong mindset as soon as the trade begins. That is to say, it will make you overly-emotional and attached to the trade.
In what might seem like a cruel twist, the more you ‘care’ about a trade, the less likely you are to manage it properly. What I mean by that, is that the more attached and emotional you are with a trade, the more likely you are to over-analyse, over-think and be over-involved with it. The primary way you get to the point of caring ‘too much’ about a trade, is by risking too much. There’s a direct correlation between how much money you risk on a trade and how emotional you become about it. And if you’ve read my article on the the Four Horsemen that are killing your trading, you already know that being overly emotional about your trading is how you lose money.
The key is to smart with small amounts when you first start trading live. You will need to ‘test the waters’ a bit to find your risk ‘sweet spot’, where you aren’t too emotional about your trades. Start with a very small amount of money, one that you wouldn’t think twice about losing. Once you hit a risk amount that causes you to become ‘glued’ to your charts and unable to sleep easily at night, you’ve gone too far and you now need to dial-back your risk to a smaller amount.

Obviously, the dollar amount you’re comfortable with risking will vary for everyone as everyone has different financial situations, trading skill, risk tolerance, etc. It will take a bit of trial and error to find your sweet spot, but it’s critical you do this and it’s critical you don’t exceed that dollar risk amount. Your entire trading mindset and how you perform in the market depends on it.
Expectations are key

Traders often come into the market with extremely unrealistic expectations about many things. They are unrealistic about how long it will take them to learn how to trade properly, how long it will take to be consistently successful, and how often they will have winning trades. When you begin something with a boatload of unrealistic expectations, you’re simply setting yourself up for emotional pain, to say the least.

To help you keep your expectations in-line with the reality of the market, start by reading my recent article on the key to lasting trading success. In that article, I talk about the random distribution of winners and losers for any given trading strategy or edge. Most traders make the mistake of ‘expecting’ every trade to win, while forgetting that their trading strategy might have an overall win rate of 60% (or less even). This means they will lose 40% of their trades, but the key is that you do not know WHICH trades you’ll lose and which you’ll win.

Given this random distribution of winners and losers, it’s no wonder so many traders lose their discipline and patience and start over-trading and losing money. It takes an iron-clad mindset to remember that any one trade doesn’t mean that much, but that you have to stay the course and stay true to your trading strategy over a large enough series of trades to see your edge play out.
You must relinquish all emotional attachment to trades. Along with controlling your risk as we discussed previously, you can do this by controlling your expectations about trading and your trades.

Simple is better
Human beings have a tendency to complicate things that should be simple, making things more difficult than they really need to be. This is especially true in trading. When you have a complicated and messy trading strategy, it’s going to be the first thing that influences your trading mindset in a negative way. It’s critical that you remain calm and clear-headed when trading, and in order to do so, you need a simple trading strategy, like price action.

The actual act of analysing the market and identifying key chart support and resistance levels, trends, price action setups, etc. is not the most difficult part of trading. The most difficult part is risk management, profit taking and trade management; and all of these things are going to be made exponentially more difficult if you are in the wrong frame of mind due to trading a messy and overly-complicated trading method.

So, starting with the foundation of a simple yet highly effective trading strategy, is step number one to achieving and maintaining the proper trading mindset. You can learn such a trading strategy by taking my price action trading course. After that, maintaining the proper trading mindset lies in money management (controlling risk mainly, as discussed above) and managing expectations, as we discussed above. If you can implement these three things with discipline and consistency; simple trading strategy (price action analysis), money management and realistic trading expectations, you will be well on your way to developing the proper trading mindset and as a result, consistent trading success.
Stop searching for the Holy Grail, you've already found it -
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kiravon
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Unread post by kiravon »

There are now nine AIMS levels between price and stop but I was stopped out due to usual whiplash. M1 remains not for me.
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kiravon
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+17%

Unread post by kiravon »

The mystery continues - I have made around +17% on demo since last night - again

Risking 10% so I wouldn't be doing this live

I found before that the best currency strength meters can be useful in unorthodox ways

They can tell you when nothing is happening in the market but when you have several pairs reading over 80% or under -80% you know that something is afoot!

I then look at the pairs with the greatest currency strength divergence and no, that in itself wont help you as price might be approaching a major key level but the meter wouldn't know that

so now is the time to check the price action

I made $14,000 on the GBPNZD pair which was also my carry trade. I also made $38 swap interest!

Its hard to be interested in such meagre interest when serious winnings are available

Carry trades are for those who want to get an edge over Bank savings interest rates. its very different to the usual trading mindset.

In the screenshot we note how the currency lines are pointing in very opposite directions, gbp line is very much mirrored by rsi but I don't consider that confluence as I suspect they have more in common than meets the eye

also not on the left the almost vertical gator lines

since yesterday my account on the two best pairs went from 96k to 116k

I could see the market was really picking up steam and the price action was compelling

so I traded big and it paid off - because I didn't care

On my live accounts I do care - a lot.

Hence the need to keep positions small, to find the 'sweet spot' risk level that causes no stress.
gbpaud currency.PNG
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kiravon
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UP 64%

Unread post by kiravon »

Having dispensed with most of my resources as they are mainly saying the same thing anyway
I'm now more back to basics, yes, 30 second glance of Fundamentals is helpful. for example
I'm aware of Brexit developments and have seen that reflected on the GU chart and have reinstated my
GU Short PO. I'm still keeping an eye on EU to break below 14 year lows again but not getting rigid about
this. Similarly with UJ, it scarcely looks very bullish at the moment but if it does resume the up trend and break
the high it may well be in for another big move so I'm watching for now.

In the meantime I have traded GA and EG over last three days, both winning for a very welcome 64% gain to my account
from 96K to currently 157k risking 10% on demo.

I've uploaded EG screenshot. Very simple break of AIMS as Ewaves declines from it's first peak. I target prior Resistance
( blue strip ) for 41 pips and sure enough as soon as target was hit it started to move back up so we see those two
prior AIMS were there for a reason and and are seriously best not ignored.

I can think of some really talented traders on this forum past and present and I know of two who seem to be able to make quite
large amounts of money trading Live.

I really wonder how many others have successfully made the transition from demo to Live

Surely in trading, to quote James T. Kirk, that really is the final frontier
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kiravon
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Unread post by kiravon »

Cancelled GU PO just before speech, I wouldn't have lost anything but easily could have, - quite an upturn.

At the moment the only currency that makes any sense to me is USDJPY and yes I've been bullish for up to 1,800 pips and I see the urgent need to abandon loyalty ie 'my Long trade right or wrong!'

That is not acting in my best interest when the pair seem to be seriously plummeting

I have just entered short at break of AIMS

Also I have taken advantage of XM's 50% Bonus scheme which lets you trade a $1,500 real account with only $1,000 of my own money - obviously you can never withdraw the bonus but you can trade with it.

Its all about this 'sweet spot'

A sweet spot is when you don't care about the risk

That's easily arranged on a micro account but winning 30 Polish grosze is not all its cracked up to be ( 6p UK )

So finding that 'sweetspot' is helped by leveraging your account by 50%.

The downside is that they might not like you winning too much but Ive never heard of them messing around with withdrawals.

They do sometimes cancel a profitable trade and if they do that, no harm done, just close the account immediately.

But I think they only do that to traders who abuse their bonus system so I wouldn't hold that against them.
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