Mickey's Journal

[immy]

Great post Michael. Thank you. will add the book to the list.. cheers [READ THIS POST GUYS]

[kiravon]

199 pips February, 50 pips March due inactivity

and only two trades so far April

The EU trade has divergence and missed weekly pivot plus break of a weak trendline.

I usually wait for break of AIMS which would have cost me an extra 8 pips. I didn't
wait. I just had a very strong gut feeling it was going to shoot up to the upside
in part because I didn't see this as much of a downtrend.

I now have tight trailing stop and my intuition paid off.

eu aims.PNG

My Gold trade is a few days old. I saw the two prior AIMS where price met resistance
and had a strong gut feeling that if price broke that level and broke current AIMS
it would do well. my hunch paid off!

But intuition can go horribly wrong. You need to be sure you are in the zone
and not whimsically feeling lucky. Big difference!

prior aims.PNG

[kiravon]

This week saw the death of the oldest person on earth, who died at the age
of 117.

She attributed much of her longevity to eating three eggs a day since childhood,
two of them taken raw. She almost never ate fruit or vegetables.

It makes you think doesn't it? Every nutritional expert in the world will espouse
the five a day advice, and you get the feeling if you transgress very much you are
as good as dead.

In medieval times the meat eating aristocracy died in their thirties where the
vegetable eating peasants lived three score years and ten.

or so we are told

Forex similarly is full of experts but I have come to view much of their advice to
be highly subjective. The fact that it may work for them seems largely irrelevant,
it may not work for anyone else.

I don't for a moment believe that any of the AIMS systems work for most people.
I have even read millionaire experts rubbishing AIMS after conducting a brief trial.

Others have completely got it, stuck with the rules rigidly and made the most
amazing consistent monthly returns.

AIMS, being originally Bill Williams methodology, is generally well regarded even
by those who have not really utilised it fully.

But I find it interesting, by contrast, that one system, out of the hundreds I must
have trialed, has elicited the most controversial revues.

Most rate it 5 star with many claiming they have never had a loser on the higher
time frames - AKA the holy grail.

but all those remaining rate it the minimum 1 star because there is some repainting,
and the owner appears to be a total charlatan.

There is virtually no middle ground! - 'None so queer as folk!'

Little wonder then, that the masses are tossed around listening to conflicting advice
which surely hastens their Forex failure - it certainly can do little to help!

I have been greatly helped by the book, 'The One Thing' - and there is indeed only
one thing you really need to perfect to ensure success in forex.

but that one thing is different for everyone.

The book really helped me to realize just how scattered I have been for so many
years, always playing with new systems and indicators but never sticking with
anything. I think many have this tendency.

So I made a decision to absolutely dump everything that wasn't absolutely
essential ( for me personally )

What have I found to be the only things that have been consistently profitable?

For several years I have always used AIMS boxes as they are so useful and enhance
just about any methodology. They are very reliable.

Similarly, Divergence on the higher time frames has been very profitable for me
and when trading divergence in the direction of missed weekly pivots I have always
averaged around 75% win rate. But these trades often need a lot of room to breath
and best results have been with very small position sizing and no stop loss. Obviously
position size needs to be small to allow this. I have found a micro account essential
when trading this way.

and by coincidence this works very well with the above mentioned system. The first arrow
is a 'standby' arrow alerting you to the possibility of a setup. The second arrow confirms
the entry. Sometimes the Standby arrow will disappear or repaint a little. Not a problem -
it just means 'no trade' - next!

But when you have both the arrows confirmed on the higher time frames you invariably
do very well. Combine that with divergence and missed weekly pivots for confluence
and it is dynamite!

For example, I have six open trades today and so far one is down 30 pips but the other
five are up over 360 pips.

and I must add that AIMS plays a very big part in plotting both entry and exits.

although it is very simple I would not think such a method would work for everyone.
It works for me because it completely resonates with me, I can actually 'see' exactly
what is happening.

but until very recently I was clouding the issue with all sorts of superfluous stuff, I
wont say rubbish because it doubtless does help others, but Fundamental Analysis,
Currency heat maps, looking for confluence of successful signal providers etc, etc

- in short, trying to complicate matters as much as possible!

So now I don't have 100 templates, I just have one. I don't have any Forex resource
websites except News Calendar, although I should reinstate the news back onto my
chart as I am prone to forget the news until some spike wipes me out!

Also I write up every trade I take in my notebook, everything I like about it, exactly
why I took the trade - so often I've looked at a trade and had no idea why I took it!

This is my understanding of the 'one thing' it doesn't necessarily mean just one
indicator but it does mean total focus on just one specific method.

There have been some very consistently, successful AIMS members and often they
add their own slant and really make the system their own - that point was stressed
in the excellent video ray posted - I think you have to really personalize a system
in order to really be trading in the zone. or at least for many of us such creativity
seems to get you more into the zone.

However, once you arrive at the best system for you, whether it's been tweaked a
bit or straight off the shelf, either way you then really have to stay focused!

In fact, that might be the only dogmatic advice you can share. Everyone is an individual
and one size doesn't fit all, and there are an infinite number of ways to profit from Forex

but my firm belief is that being scattered isn't one of them!

ej.PNG

[acceleratum]

I love the boxes as well and I can do any of the aims strategies with clean chart but I do need boxes and the AO. What Aims system teaches is how to be disciplined and believing in yourself, also consistency and sticking to one plan, changing templates and strategies often is a mistake even I who am not an expert learned pretty fast here, I also learned many many tools and indicators and how they work, I can do my own style now with all that I have learned here and while it may be different from everyone else it follows the basic teachings of keeping one plan, not change anything for several trades testing it out properly, everything is written down and planned ahead and keep a template as clean as possible.
I Hope you find your way and become very successful!

[kooky]

Thanks Mickey,
would you care to share the said arrows file, and what they refer to,,I assume they are the ones on the main chart?? Cheers

[kiravon]

This is just a useful extension to Ewaves so there will
probably be no objection to uploading it, as Ewaves
has always been very central to AIMS methodology.
Some may find this added feature very profitable
as I have done. Divergence is very powerful on
the higher time frames and Ewaves Divergence
Arrows are a very quick and easy way to spot
divergence. It is easily incorporated into
existing AIMS strategies.

[kiravon]

Pedro
'Believing in yourself' - that is gold dust! and AIMS boxes do become second nature.
In the trade below carried over from yesterday I called the chart up and just
instinctively placed add on PO above AIMS. I didn't even have to think about it.

Kooky
I would have been very surprised if someone didn't ask for my 'magic arrows'. Unfortunately
I can't post them because, if I can do that, then everyone else can swamp AIMS with their
non AIMS indicators. This really isn't helpful to newbies, or anyone else for that matter.
If you go to the forums you will find nothing but complaints from members over having been
cheated into buying this repainting system. It's true, there is repainting and I don't think they
will help you. Also there are different versions of the system. I don't use any version as such.

I just took a couple of arrows from one of the systems and it seems to work well with
my particular approach. My black arrows in the window are actually Ewaves Divergence Arrows
believe it or not. You don't need arrows, you can plot divergence on the actual histogram itself.

The other arrows were forexsignals30 but I just replaced the signal arrow with Strong Abi system
arrow. Its much the same. I don't need it but it just proves there is no one magic indicator, there
are many you can mix and match, it just depends what seems to work for the individual trader.


Next One Thing
For me that has got to be not giving all my profit back! Last night I installed the calendar onto
my chart and noticed that in one minute there was high impact NZD news! Suddenly price spiked
against me so I instantly closed my position for a loss.

Then price suddenly retraced about 70% so I immediately went in as per AIMS News strategy
and recouped most of my loss.

But I don't trade News - that was a highly impromptu emergency scenario and highly undisciplined.

So today I have my calendar and I have just closed my USD trades a few minutes before the News and
will reinstate them afterwards if appropriate........

... and that's exactly what I did. If you look at USDJPY below you can see where I closed for a profit and
also where I have placed PO above AIMS to continue the move which was largely unaffected by the News -
but it could have gone very wrong. Discipline is key. Also you note an instance of how AIMS is still very
central to my trading strategy. if it wasn't I wouldn't be here.

My account is up 30% since yesterday morning. But success isn't making 30% a day, that is the
ultimate delusion. Success is making 30% in a day, then experiencing a 25% drawdown and
being extremely satisfied with the 5% gain for the day. - if you can make +5% in a month
that would be outstanding! - so I think I can cope quite happily with a very modest 1% - 3% per day.

I'm reliably informed that generally the only way traders make real money in Forex is by getting funded
by investors. and making +200% gain one month, -50% drawdown next month may result in a very big profit
after a year or two. but investors more typically will look for a consistent 1% or 2% per month with no
nasty surprises - safe money in other words.

and even if you are able to achieve very high monthly returns its not always good to assume you have got
it made. I know myself when life circumstances interfere with your trading routine you can very quickly
lose the 'knack'

I once wrote about window cleaning as a knack, which it is. its not a highly skilled profession but until
you have the knack you will make smears all over the place. but you can lose the knack of window cleaning
and you can even more easily lose the knack of trading.

I know only too well I have absolutely been out of form myself last couple of months. Its been very hard
to make much sense of the charts.

Previously I saw wisdom in the much higher time frames. I still do. and some guys boast they only need
to spend ten minutes a week to quickly see if there is a setup.

That isn't for me. Trading is highly personal and subjective. I need to be quite immersed in trading
on a continual day to day basis. Thats why I trade both H4 and H1. Daily is more reliable and less
vulnerable to spikes etc but I have to be involved.

I think it was Tomi some years ago who told me that his journey with AIMS had probably taught him
more about himself than about trading. I get that now. When you learn what junk really isn't helping
your trading you are really learning what junk isn't needed in your life.

Journals and notebooks are my lifeline. At the moment I have absolute clarity

but tomorrow is another day

uj.PNG

[kiravon]

Closed the week 20% profit having peaked at almost 40% up.
I could have salvaged a lot more but 20% is ok.
Next week I am looking at four possible setups on H4

CADJPY H4 Possible Buy
Divergence, missed weekly and monthly pivots, oversold stochastics.
Standby arrow in place but it might disappear. I need a signal arrow
which should appear if price moves up.

There is a very reliable trendline in place so PO will be placed above that
and above AIMS and prior AIMS for good measure.

TP to be placed at peak of prior AIMS which is just below the lows of earlier
AIMS - indicated by red line, which is same as the missed weekly pivot

It is a 67 pip target which I believe is realistic if we get full entry setup.
I have also been looking at EATA cross of CC and RSI over the weekend
which looked phenomenal on the charts at plotting imminent reversals!

A few comments have revealed it is phenomenal at repainting!

but guy found that changing the settings stopped the repainting and still
gave quite a reliable indication. I tested that and it does still work
but I haven't confirmed that it no longer repaints. so its tentative
at the moment. This week will be interesting.

cj.PNG

GBPCAD H4 Possible Sell

missed weekly pivot but no divergence, well overbought on stochastics,
standby arrow in place but still awaiting confirmation signal arrow.

Entry will be break of AIMS consolidation level on H1 timeframe if
everything else is in place.

There is a 340 pip drop ro prior AIMS which is a bit ambitious.

But using fib retracement I could place one TP at 38% for 150 pips
and a second at 50% for 240 pips.

Assuming a valid entry I would be surprised if I didn't hit one or
the other.

gc.PNG

GBPNZD H4 Possible Sell

no trend channel on H4 curiously but on D1 there is 1,000 pips
to lower trend line.

divergence, missed weekly and monthly pivots, standby and
confirmation arrows in place.

stochastics borderline overbought

Enter break of trendline and target prior AIMS for 100 pips.

gn.PNG

GBPUSD Possible Sell
Divergence, two missed weekly pivots, standby and confirmation in place,
overbought stochastics - this is a very mechanical system.

Entry at break of AIMS and TP at prior AIMS for 140 pips.

Again, if you enter at AIMS and close at AIMS it makes the strategy
extremely AIMS based. It actually uses AIMS boxes on every trade
one way or the other, it uses Ewaves on virtually every trade even
though most of it is not visible. I seem to get by without Gator.

All four possible setups involve either CAD or GBP and we have high
impact news for both on Wed and Fri. News drives the markets so
hopefully we will see some movement this week.

I hope at least one of these setups comes off. I would think next week
should see some profit.

Obviously this isn't a signal service and I wouldn't encourage anyone to follow
this, its just for my reference, although, if it continues to be profitable
it may be of interest to some.

gu.PNG

[kiravon]

3% yesterday on UJ and three trades today 2 x EJ and 1 x UJ - four winners
now up 6.5%. entered after the cherry in screenshot

uj.PNG

[kiravon]

A good week despite all the potential trades I posted last
weekend being retired with no real harm done.- 'the best
laid plans of mice and men.'

Nevertheless I've been profitable every day with 3% today.

This week has helped me redefine what it means to be
focused. It may not be the same for everyone.

For me I cannot be focused and not be involved with trading all week.
I have to be doing something everyday.

Also gone are the days of obsessively monitoring the charts 16 hrs a day.
Thats the fast road to insanity.

Also I can broaden out by looking at anything that improves my overall
chart reading ability.

and I like to keep trying to refine my system. I read that somewhere -
we should always be seeking the Holy Grail even though it doesn't exist.
That actually does make sense to me, in other words its the 'refining'
our perceptions of trading that is more valuable than actually finding
the mythical holy grail.

Here is today's trade with a nice 1:3 RR

cj.PNG