Thomas's journal [trading The Hunt on H1]

[ElBarto]

An excellent post. Good trade and your trading observations are spot on. I would like to make this style of journal writing the recommended format. Perfect, thank you for doing it.

Too much honour, really ^:)^ .
I'm only trying to implement, what I've seen in many other great Journals and Forum posts.

It takes time to search for and work through the stuff one is interested in.
But it's all here and definitely worth the effort.

[ElBarto]

Trade campaign 8/3

Summary

• Pair: NZD/USD
  Entry: Fruit + Momentum Add-On + Box Add-On + N/A + Box Add-On
  Risk: 24.1 P + 54.1 P + 57.2 P + 57 P + 61.5 P
  Exit: Initial SL
  Result: - 24 P - 54.5 P - 59.3 P - 57.3 P - 63.3 P = - 258.4 P, - 1 R - 0.99 R - 1.04 R - 1.01 R - 1.03 R = - 5.07 R
  DS : 0

About the campaign

• Pre-trade remarks:
  • Fruit Setup at the 38.2 % retrace level of a bearish Wave 3 starting from 13th of July.
  • Alligator on H4 is opening to the upside. But, price is forming a bearish Fruit Setup, too, at the possible end of a Wave 4 up (38.2 % retrace level of a bearish Wave 3 starting from 13th of July).
  • Alligator on D1 is open to the downside. Price is going back to Alligator, but shows signs of bouncing there off.
  • There's no Divergence, but Angle is pretty good.
  • Price moved quickly out of a tight Box, retraced a small bit and shot up again, creating some distance to Alligator.
  • Aim is to hit a possible Wave 5 down, as my TZ1 is around 0.6861, which offers a Reward to Risk of ~ 10:1 for the first entry.

• Post-trade remarks:
  • Second Momentum Add-On was missed. But as there was still Momentum down when I looked at the Chart and eWaves crossed its ZL, I decided to trail the Entry Level (DS = 0, as missed is missed).
  • The large Candle at 27th of July, 21:00, was FOMC news.
  • The fourth Add-On should have been placed at the break of lower AIMS-Level, formed under the Candle of 06:00. Here, there were too much uncleared Level to the left.
  • I tightened the SL of all open trades before FOMC news. But, as price seemed to go in my favour, I changed them back to their original value (other side of Fruit Setup).
  • Retrospective: the Fruit Setup was at the end of a bullish Wave 3. I entered and added-on into a Wave 4. Price going into Wave 5 kicked me out.
  • This is a good example of being too biased with markets direction.
    Nothing wrong with the Entry, but Add-Ons three and four could have easily been avoided. Why not wait untill market proofs my assumptions right, instead of shooting into dark?

[immy]

my observation below

[immy]

moreover, from the wave count perspective you had clear indication that you were going into wave 4. when gator slept it was clear that wave 4 was happening it was time to exit. and finally it went nicely into wave 5. It happens, but hopefully we learn from this and use this experience to make better trading decisions in the future. that's the whole purpose of journal writing.

generally i won't be holding a strong/heavy campaign like so and allow it go throuhg FOMC type of news. Very high risk. Price could jump 100 pips and miss your SL way behind.

[immy]

moreover, price was under the influence of hte two fruit longs on d1. it bounced off the high of those fruits on d1 twice, once where i marked the bullish fruit and second on the FOMC. NEXT is the Call NEXT

[ElBarto]

All points you mention are valid and I absolutely agree.
Perhaps I wouldn't have quit the campaign at the Fruit you pointed out. But, the sleeping Alligator should have been a warning sign and the Candle before FOMC a definite exit, at the latest.

My Trading Plan is still very rigid in matters of exiting campaings: in Stage 1 and 2, leave SL at its initial spot. Start Box trail, when price enters Stage 3.
As I'm already much more flexible with my entries, I will be the same with my exits (where necessary).
Still 12 campaigns to go within this T20, changes will be applied afterwards.

Always a pleasure to receive constructive "criticism" and/or to read others point of view.

[immy]

Yes agreed, but i think you got one main thing wrong. that I should have pointed out earlier.

you wrote, (thank you for doing that again, its awesome)

Alligator on D1 is open to the downside. Price is going back to Alligator, but shows signs of bouncing there off.

actually it was not really open to downside or rather it was slightly open to downside but it was a correction at the end of 3 wave. Using the AO peaks or better eWAVE count we saw clearly it was going into wave 4 after 3 up. and the price action was pretty steep down, typical of C down on the d1 chart. and then it created two fruit longs. (we are long on D1, hoping to catch the 5 up) price then went quickly up. the up move, shown as wave 3 up on your chart, was preceded by a fruit long on D1 chart. it then went into a correction abc, down, thats what you traded. note that it bounced off the high of wave 1 2.00am 26th of July. this meant it did not violate wave 1 and hence wave 5 up was coming. 27th of july fruit long, in the early hrs was perfect exit.

One more point. Do not ADD on Robotic-ally possibly in the next few batches of T20. You may continue this wy for now, to drill in this setup. But in future you will have to take in to accoutn stuff like Risk Rewards and whether you're trading a correction or an impulse. nice read.

ps: at the end of this week, Kiwi has finished strong up. but I dont think the 3 up is over. come monday we might have some more longs. and perhaps a 4 and 5 up to follow. on the d1 chart, we still have some space towards the high fo the box.

[ElBarto]

I just tried to recap my entries to compare them with your analysis.
Below is my (retroactive) interpretation of Wave situation on H1 and D1.
I'm a rookie in counting Elliott Waves, so there might be mistakes in the Charts.
But the whole picture makes sense and is in line with your words.

Elliott_NU_H1.png

Elliott_NU_D1.png

Hopefully, someday I'm able to anticipate such structures before I take a trade.

One more point. Do not ADD on Robotic-ally possibly in the next few batches of T20. You may continue this wy for now, to drill in this setup. But in future you will have to take in to accoutn stuff like Risk Rewards and whether you're trading a correction or an impulse. nice read.

Within my few trades, I already noticed, that there are different situations, where adding-on makes more or less (e.g. see last campaign) sense.
As soon as I'm able to judge market environment better, I'll start to adapt my entry practice.

ps: at the end of this week, Kiwi has finished strong up. but I dont think the 3 up is over. come monday we might have some more longs. and perhaps a 4 and 5 up to follow. on the d1 chart, we still have some space towards the high fo the box.

See this the same way.
As I'm already in an EUR/USD campaign, I'll probably be waiting for a Wave 4 to appear here on H1 and then trade the following Wave 5 (if possible). Or, the Wave 5 of current Wave 3 up. We'll see.

[immy]

Really good work there mate.

Word of caution here though...

We DO NOT trade Wave 3 or Wave 5... We do not anticipate that. We do our analysis and then shift that to the background and then (think of it as your BG of your phone or as if you're drawing a picture and you've got yourself a nice background printed already as in blue sky some mountains and green lush grassy fields ) trade the Signals/setups in line with your analysis. Never allow yourself to THINK you are trading Elliott wave (paradoxical, and challenging i know) yet trade in line with it. Hope it makes sense.

[immy]

and good analysis on The Kiwi...

If you look at Monthly chart you'll se a scooby (inverted) that is abc... and we are in the C up. and that C up might have a some more waves up coming or may be not.

if you want to know possible turn around of H1 Chart, just look at a weekly chart and see where are the bar highs and lows. the same might be some Box Highs and Lows. Think of Box Highs and Lows as possible Candle/Bar highs and lows on a significant higher time frame. play with this idea. it will give you a new paradigm.