Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

I was offered a free course, about candlesticks which may or
may not be helpful, - I'm certainly not recommending anyone watch it.

However, the first two videos are essential viewing!

- especially to anyone out there who has ever had a string of losers
and concluded they should give up trading, or keep seeking a better
system where you get no losers -( be sure to let me know when you find it! )

Imagine you invest in a franchise, a proven business providing you
follow the rules exactly. Most businesses will fail, over 90% failure rate
I believe. but this franchise has a 99.95% success rate!

How confident would you be?

very confident?

These videos demonstrate superbly how that even with an average 50% win
rate and 1:2 RR there is only a one in 2,300 chance of losing!

I believe that's a 99.95% success rate.

To really prove it to yourself you can create an excel spreadsheet and record
your coin flips, $2 for every win (heads) and -$1 for every loss (tails)

or use a roulette simulator-
https://www.roulettephysics.com/free-ro ... simulator/

but remember to enter results in excel with 1:2 RR and don't record any
zeros

You will learn that you have a high, 85% chance, of 7 losers in a row,
and of of having losing months, but the larger the numbers
of coins flipped or wheel spin, the more you see the certainty
of your edge.

This is such a confidence booster!

and a reminder we should all be recording T20!!

Even when I couldn't trade to save my life I remember having
18 losers out of 20 trades and incredulously still coming out
with a very small profit!

We have to get this concept of Law of Large Numbers
absolutely burned into our neurology

Once we really get this, arguably the most important principle
in trading, we will cope with any number of rents the market
throws at us - it will all be water off a duck's back

I strongly recommend the first two videos, there is no
marketing or sales pitch, its literally just an educational
freebie

https://www.trading180.com/supply-deman ... ick-course
password ekUvERE3as

[kiravon]

Nice win on FOMC with a Buy Limit order.

3% was more than enough and I was very confident it would return to
the level it had peaked at after the News.

It has since doubled that! I could have made 6%

yes, and I could just as easily have lost the 3% I made!

Greedy pigs get slaughtered.

However, by coincidence, this trade is an interesting example of my ramblings from
yesterday.

The first arrow shows break of AIMS - I'm not really a great fan of this anymore,
it has quickly turned around and bit me on the bum more times than I care to remember!

but assume this wasn't FOMC - ignore break of AIMS and just watch price move up.

is it galling to see all those pips you are missing? Well think of all those pips you
are not losing when it promptly reverses after breaking out!

so wait until the move peaks (assuming it does ) - it's got to retrace eventually
we see that it retraces quite decisively - this is important, we need volatility and to avoid
tight consolidating ranging like the plague

now the second arrow is where the red candle retracement has ended and the green candles
are moving up in the direction of the original break of AIMS.

Entering there you would have made around 7% before price reversed and broke down under AIMS.

'I would have made much more if I had entered at the original break of AIMS!'

Actually you wouldn't, you would only have made 4% but with a high risk that price would have reversed
immediately after break, losing you -1%

The reason being that you would have needed a much bigger stop at that entry point.

But let us assume you could have made much more -

Is that really the criteria?

It certainly isn't mine

I would rather earn 1% a day as a professional trader than make 8% per day occasionally when a
lucky gamble pays off.

I think what I might be trying to say is that a break of AIMS is far more valuable in hindsight.

This might be contrary to the original AIMS philosophy of trading in the moment, 'in the here and now'
type of approach but it does seem to be far more robust

However, I suggest this with absolutely no back testing and minimal forward testing

My hypothesis is simply this:- that AIMS (Fractals) are indeed highly significant, but not a mere
break of AIMS. Its what happens after the break that matters. If it fizzles ( very common ) or
reverses you will likely get stopped out.

But if it makes a strong impulsive move and a strong retracement, indicating volatility in the market,
you will likely do very well trading the pullback, in other words placing a PO several pips beyond the candle
that has resumed the original trend. This way you don't get caught out if price is in fact reversing or starting
to consolidate.

Of course it isn't quite that simple. Ideally there should be a very strong trend confluent with higher time frame,
watch out for support and resistance zones, and take care to avoid getting caught in tight consolidation
that can happen anytime.

But with a little practice I think it could be a very profitable strategy. I will certainly continue to monitor it

FOMC.PNG

[acceleratum]

that looks like the aims news strategy.. btw break of aims is only confirmed when candle closes outside of it.. if it fakes out.. well it is a fakeout..

[kiravon]

No, I don't think it qualified as AIMS News strategy
as it failed the 15 second rule and it doesn't recommend
Limit orders but I it is similar

A.N.S does work quite well if anyone hasn't tried it yet.

A nice 50 pips today 1:2 RR trading the pullback on the EURJPY
Could have taken an earlier break of AIMS but there
was prior Resistance so better safe than sorry, and 2%
not bad.

ej.PNG

[wiseambitions]

Wow you were brave and did well. I looked at it on the 1200 candle (UK time) yesterday and the height of the Aims box (H1) put me off trying a long on that one!

[kiravon]

Hello Ray
Good to see you!
Well I guess my own particular brand of courage is being too dumb
to see the danger

But there is something I wanted to get back to based on Pedro's comment
and your reference to AIMS box height

Originally the AIMS rules were break of AIMS, set a PO, not market entry-
clearly you cannot set a PO at close of candle that breaks AIMS, as you
don't know where it will be, so the rule was one or two pips plus spread
past AIMS level - ie break of AIMS.

Now that rule might have changed as has preferred timeframe

but here is my thought -

a break of AIMS, even with confluence of Gator and Ewaves is not that
strong an entry signal. As Pedro rightly indicates, a close after the break
is far stronger and I believe can give you an edge.

However if that candle has real momentum and travels way, way beyond
the AIMS level you may have missed the best part of the move - what
should you do?

Personally I put a lot of store on momentum candles but would not
usually enter in this instance.

But wait for the pullback which may take you back to halfway down the box
or more, but that would be a better proposition for me.

So far this approach seems to be working quite well.

Capitalizing on the momentum and volatility but not risking getting
in too late after the move might be over.

[kiravon]

Just want to make a note of this for future reference

Confluence of HTF should be a factor of 4 -6
so -
M1 - M5 x5
M5 - M30 x6
M15 - H1 x4
H1- H4 x4
H4 - D1 x6
D1 - D5 ( ie Weekly ) x5

This also is original AIMS guideline

but what to look for?

If Entry time frame is giving a bullish signal and is in an uptrend
do you look for uptrend on the Higher Time Frame?

Not necessarily

Look for the direction of the swing on HTF

So even if HTF is in an uptrend but has just crossed down through centre Bollinger/
Donchian , 20SMA or 20EMA the current direction is down, and I would look
for a cross of zero on RSI ( NOT Ewaves ) to support this.

So with every indication that HTF price is moving down, albeit short term,
a Sell signal on the Lower Time Frame takes on far more significance
and you should be able to hit your TP on the Lower Time Frame before
the Higher Time Frame resumes it's uptrend.

If you are using Gator on HTF and trend is up, if the current Swing is down
and crossed down through 20SMA, you should expect Green to be turning down
and about to cross through Red.

If Green has now turned down on HTF you would be looking for a Sell signal on LTF

[kiravon]

For various reasons I have been thinking very seriously about Discipline Score
and decided I haven't been giving it the attention I believe it deserves.

I believe if you get this right you have got everything right!

AIMS states you need 70% DS to be profitable and I wouldn't dispute that
although I would suggest a very sensible goal would be to aim for 100%

In my case Discipline Score is somewhat more complex than simply
marking myself 1 or 0.

However if anyone reading this is simply doing that you are doing something
that losers really don't want to do - so that's brilliant!

What I am trying to do is firstly, not forget anything, and secondly
to ensure my DS is accurate and not subjective, for example if you
score 14/20 in your T20 how accurate is that really?

So I first have a ten point checklist and 70% here really doesn't cut it!
The main three system rules are a bit obscured as we all have our
personalized approach to AIMS methodology and I'm not wishing to
influence anyone.

But the next seven rules are not to be taken lightly

For example, HTF factor of 4-6 absolutely MUST meet certain criteria
- it must Quantifiably be seen to moving up or down in it's current swing.

Is Entry too near a major prior AIMS level ie support or resistance?

I don't have a fixed minimum RR but it must be positive and this goes back
to the good old horse racing days when the rule is you never bet less than evens
ie 1:1. Ideally I am looking for 1:2 or better but if I just can't get a tight stop
and it looks like a very compelling trade I will probably take it if its better than 1:1

Like horses 1:10 and 1:20+ is obtainable but you would need a very good reason
to assume you are in with a chance.

More typically, you may be trailing 50 EMA for example and sometimes it will just
happen. Its more the exception than the rule though.
The two pre entry psychological rules are
1) am I trading because I have a compulsion to trade, ie gambling fever?
2) Paradoxically, do I find the trade genuinely exciting because it jumps
out at you as being an absolute model set up?

If there is a problem with either of these two answers the course of wisdom
is to switch off as you are probably not seeing reality.

There are also two post entry psychological questions that I call Professionalism
Score because a negative score on either is the hallmark of an amateur trader

Of course there may be a reason to alter SL or TP in the case of switching to
Trailing Stop for example. but did I keep messing around with SL or TP due to
panic or uncertainty? I can get both questions wrong, one wrong, or none wrong,
and so award myself either 0, 5 or 10.

So the total of checklist and Professionalism Score is a maximum of 20 and I
personally see no reason to score under 100%, and I know if I can say yes to each of
the twelve questions I cannot really fail in the long term.

The numbers will play out

But again. this isn't necessarily some major innovation. - just more of a refinement
which I feel is necessary for me to try to remove as much subjectivity as possible.

But any recording of DS, even a basic tick or cross for the trade is excellent,
and way, way beyond what 98% of traders would do

so already that puts you in the serious 2%!

checklist.PNG

[immy]

Hi Mickey

Just a quick note to say that I really appreciate this input. I'm sure lots of us here will benefit from this. I believe its not an innovation rather this is how it should be. If you're starting from scratch then the standard T20 Principle will suit you but as we all know in your case, you've been at it for a while. Your T20 plans looks quite solid to me.

The single most important tool I've used to improve my trading overall is this. T20 Principle. It makes me focus on the result of 20 trades instead of responding emotionally at the outcome of an individual trade.

All the best

cheers

[kiravon]

Whilst the above is certainly a big improvement it doesn't give the complete
picture.

Adding screenshots into my spreadsheet really lets me know in hindsight
exactly what was happening on CTF and HTF.

So many times I've looked back on a trade and really scratched my head
with no idea why I took it.

With a full checklist and screenshots that hopefully will avoid this ever happening.

So is this now the ultimate in professionalism? Seasoned professionals
would view it as basic entry level professionalism.

Ironically it takes discipline to actually record your discipline score

I'm just thinking, if I'm going to do it I might as well do it properly.

I don't know if any trade is going to win, - that's a pity because we all
crave certainty, and the only forex certainty I have is that at some point
I will have a string of losers and possibly even losing months, nevertheless
if I really stick to this checklist rigidly I will definitely have an edge and
my account will grow.

Its only when you see it laid out professionally on a spreadsheet does that
start to really become believable, - to my mind at least.

However, congratulations again to all who are actually recording their
trades, T20's and Discipline scores

However you are actually doing it the the thing is you are doing it!

You are definitely on the right road to success, and there isn't any
other road.

and this is always worth reiterating! I can promise you it is absolute gold dust
and more valuable than all the latest , hottest systems and indicators you
could ever find!-

The single most important tool I've used to improve my trading overall is this.-
T20 Principle. It makes me focus on the result of 20 trades instead of responding
emotionally at the outcome of an individual trade

checklist.PNG