Thursday. The day before bank holidays. Dax.
I can only say today was "yucky" although in higher TF there was a trend down. It moved about 100 pips, which is overall lower than the usual ADR.
M1, it moved very fast, high Aims boxes, long candles, frequent ranging. a few AO crosses and s1 entries, but outweighed by stop losses due to either the green line of alligator, or opposite fractals.
m5. a little clearer, likewise m15
But I don't know if anyone came through it with a positive outcome. We often see thin volume and high volatility the day before a bank holiday.
Ray's amnesty page
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wiseambitions
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You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
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wiseambitions
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Re: Ray's amnesty page
Some points arising from the Moneyweek newsletter today:
A “quite staggering” new study by S&P Dow Jones Indices (and cited in the Financial Times) has found that, “almost every actively-managed equity fund in Europe investing in global, emerging and US markets has failed to beat its benchmark over the past decade”. After performance fees were deducted from performance (to reflect your actual return), 86% of European active funds failed to beat their benchmark over ten years. What’s more, “98.9% of US-focused equity funds underperformed, as did 97.8% of global equity funds”.
...... as David Blake of London’s Cass Business School puts it, “the average equity fund manager is unable to deliver outperformance from stock selection or market timing”. In other words, “your average professional is rubbish at picking stocks, and at choosing when to buy or sell”. Indeed, says Blake, “a typical investor would be almost 1.44% better off per annum by switching to a UK equity tracker.”
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Equity trackers are of course passively managed funds which just try and do what the index (FTSE100, Dax30 etc) are doing by holding stocks in the same proportion.
So much for all these experts, who also take their percentage every year from the funds under their control!
We can do better, and I think even if we didn't even have leverage to gear up our positions we would still do much better than those guys, using what we know here! We also know why those fund managers are so poor, their assets are too cumbersome to fully trade, we can go completely back to cash several times a day, and we can go short as well as long. And fund managers are lemmings really, if they hear a certain stock is popular they all pile in to it at the same time! Yes they have minions of super brains working around them, typically Oxbridge graduates, trying to understand what is going on, but when you look at the moves they make over the course of a year there is not a lot to show.
A “quite staggering” new study by S&P Dow Jones Indices (and cited in the Financial Times) has found that, “almost every actively-managed equity fund in Europe investing in global, emerging and US markets has failed to beat its benchmark over the past decade”. After performance fees were deducted from performance (to reflect your actual return), 86% of European active funds failed to beat their benchmark over ten years. What’s more, “98.9% of US-focused equity funds underperformed, as did 97.8% of global equity funds”.
...... as David Blake of London’s Cass Business School puts it, “the average equity fund manager is unable to deliver outperformance from stock selection or market timing”. In other words, “your average professional is rubbish at picking stocks, and at choosing when to buy or sell”. Indeed, says Blake, “a typical investor would be almost 1.44% better off per annum by switching to a UK equity tracker.”
------------
Equity trackers are of course passively managed funds which just try and do what the index (FTSE100, Dax30 etc) are doing by holding stocks in the same proportion.
So much for all these experts, who also take their percentage every year from the funds under their control!
We can do better, and I think even if we didn't even have leverage to gear up our positions we would still do much better than those guys, using what we know here! We also know why those fund managers are so poor, their assets are too cumbersome to fully trade, we can go completely back to cash several times a day, and we can go short as well as long. And fund managers are lemmings really, if they hear a certain stock is popular they all pile in to it at the same time! Yes they have minions of super brains working around them, typically Oxbridge graduates, trying to understand what is going on, but when you look at the moves they make over the course of a year there is not a lot to show.
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
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wiseambitions
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Re: Ray's amnesty page
50 pips this afternoon, I was a bit late getting out of this one, at just before 1800 BST. But I bet it will carry on going up now!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
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wiseambitions
- AIMSter
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- Joined: 17 Sep 2012, 21:36
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Re: Ray's amnesty page
second trade of the morning, 80 pips, I should have got out a bit earlier, like for 100.
This followed a 3 pip loser
This followed a 3 pip loser
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
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wiseambitions
- AIMSter
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- Joined: 17 Sep 2012, 21:36
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Re: Ray's amnesty page
I wish more people kept a blog here of their trading.
Perhaps I am at fault for tending to show my better trades but not discussing the ones that go wrong for me - and trades do go wrong in not inconsiderable numbers at times, either because the market does what it wants to do against the best indicators, and also because of my silly human error
Perhaps I am at fault for tending to show my better trades but not discussing the ones that go wrong for me - and trades do go wrong in not inconsiderable numbers at times, either because the market does what it wants to do against the best indicators, and also because of my silly human error
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
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immy
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Re: Ray's amnesty page
if more people kept journals more people will be successful in the long run that will then defy the truth, 95% of traders are losers because they don't plan, and they don't keep journals. they don't track performance or progress. They just take trading as form of gambling... I am trying to change that figure but ....
What is the Secret of Successful Trading?
The Consistent Pursuit of DS1
The thing that makes me money in trading is when I "Objectively Follow my Trading Plan".
I understand that I can't catch all the moves or all the signals but my objective is to catch THE VALID SIGNALS & ONLY the Valid Signals.
My Deathbed Advice "5:1 Reward to Risk Ratio".
Yo, banana boy!
The Consistent Pursuit of DS1
The thing that makes me money in trading is when I "Objectively Follow my Trading Plan".
I understand that I can't catch all the moves or all the signals but my objective is to catch THE VALID SIGNALS & ONLY the Valid Signals.
My Deathbed Advice "5:1 Reward to Risk Ratio".
Yo, banana boy!
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wiseambitions
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- Posts: 1127
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Re: Ray's amnesty page
Dax, I am in a long trade this afternoon and have decided on the sort of trend we are in the middle of, to regard it like a 5 minute chart trade......
In other words my stop might not be so close to the price as normal. Fingers crossed
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Outcome. I closed for +55 pips, could have done better but it was a nice result. Probably m1 exits (eg Green line of gator) were better as it happened.
Not many times do I succeed with NFP trading, but I tried to oversee it carefully this afternoon, at low risks, and the net result of profits and losses was a good 4% so I can thank the market for that, and thank all the folks who designed the systems too!
In other words my stop might not be so close to the price as normal. Fingers crossed
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Outcome. I closed for +55 pips, could have done better but it was a nice result. Probably m1 exits (eg Green line of gator) were better as it happened.
Not many times do I succeed with NFP trading, but I tried to oversee it carefully this afternoon, at low risks, and the net result of profits and losses was a good 4% so I can thank the market for that, and thank all the folks who designed the systems too!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
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baldeagle
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Re: Ray's amnesty page
Okay, Okay Ray, I know what I should do but don't! But, I appreciate your input and once I settle on what my trading plan ,mainly TF, I will post some trades. I have been migrating to higher TF's to fit my duties at home. I did see a 7% improvement in my account this month, hooray! ( Guess I should mention I was up about 20% before I gave a lot back.)
I would like to see some of your reversals and how you decide when you get out or stay in. I am presently analyzing my biggest losses to see how I can reduce them.
Ed
I would like to see some of your reversals and how you decide when you get out or stay in. I am presently analyzing my biggest losses to see how I can reduce them.
Ed
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wiseambitions
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Re: Ray's amnesty page
hi Ed
And thanks for your post
I wish I knew sometimes how to decide whether to get out or stay, often I get out too soon or hang in too long!
Today I traded many times, with small amounts, and achieved over 3% return, which I think is a good start to the week, however I am not proud of some of my losses. In one case I got the lot size wrong as well! And I found also that I was late getting in to one trade, which I entered in "impulse mode" and missed most of the move, before getting stopped out in a 20 pip loss, whereas I would have done little worse than break even if I had got in on time!
Here are photos of my best two trades of the day
And thanks for your post
I wish I knew sometimes how to decide whether to get out or stay, often I get out too soon or hang in too long!
Today I traded many times, with small amounts, and achieved over 3% return, which I think is a good start to the week, however I am not proud of some of my losses. In one case I got the lot size wrong as well! And I found also that I was late getting in to one trade, which I entered in "impulse mode" and missed most of the move, before getting stopped out in a 20 pip loss, whereas I would have done little worse than break even if I had got in on time!
Here are photos of my best two trades of the day
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
-
wiseambitions
- AIMSter
- Posts: 1127
- Joined: 17 Sep 2012, 21:36
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Re: Ray's amnesty page
Today started with another rout, this Dax can easily move 5% and more every week.......
Nevertheless I've had a good morning, a few losses, but wins were greater
Here's a thought in an email from a trading buddy today
"Our focus needs to be identifying and avoiding or dealing with ranging"
And I believe the best way to avoid ranging is to not start new trades after around 1030/1100 until 1330 then quit by 1630
Nevertheless I've had a good morning, a few losses, but wins were greater
Here's a thought in an email from a trading buddy today
"Our focus needs to be identifying and avoiding or dealing with ranging"
And I believe the best way to avoid ranging is to not start new trades after around 1030/1100 until 1330 then quit by 1630
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."