Mickey's Journal

[baldeagle]

Let's see if I can push your journal to page 100!

"I like to think of following price charts like reading a book – to understand the story, you must read each page because what happened before will help you to make sense of what is happening now and where the market might go next." Your quote. Elegant thought. I think this is similar to what Immy said about finding a way to read this story through AIMS or what ever method speaks to us personally. I know from teaching experience that each person is very different in their approach to learning new material. It was my job, as the teacher, to find that path to the best learning experience for each person. I think as traders we must also find the personal path that helps us understand "the story of the market".

Re GBPJPY engulfing trade: I got an engulfing reversal trade signal on the H8 right before I was stopped out trailing with PSAR. The signal wasn't perfect as the range wasn't quite engulfing but the body was. I think your idea of using TZ1 (Thanks Snorm!) is a good one for maybe half the trade and let the other half go until you get a reversal signal.

Are you referring to 3 period RSI or the 3 line RSI indicator?

Ed

[immy]

Hey Ed

the story is pretty simple ... very simple indeed... the market at a given point in time/space either goes up or down... like a toss of coin... how do you make money? you find repeating "graphical patterns" with the help of your drawing tools *primitive way called price action trading" or slightly advanced by utilising algorithms ie.e pattern generating using indicators ... you then go ahead and do an extensive back-testing to find how often does this pattern occur and what is your odds of success in most cases its less than 50% ... how do you make money? by losing less on average than your winning .... or winning more on average than losing ... as simple as that ....

IMHO

ps: could everyone PLEASE refrain from posting any chart that is NOT AIMS template ... or a highly modified so called version of it... it really frustrates me and the new people... please ...

[baldeagle]

Thanks Immy,

That really simplifies things.

Ed

[kiravon]

Best I can remember. Very nice trade on GBPAUD and EURGBP
Halfway to TZ1 already om H4.

But like other very profitable members I have a tendency
to be constantly innovating and experimenting and whilst
this is often very profitable for me, sadly it is unlikely
to be for others

That said, I am truly grateful for the guys who have shared
their personal insights on this Forum, Grant was great
when he was around, and Ray (WiseAmbitions) preeminently.

Ray shared one M1 strategy that one of his associates uses to
make an average 3% per day, but Ray makes far, far more
than that! although he is the first to admit his methods
are not for the feint hearted.

When I first learnt her method, it is in fact on this forum -
(seek and you will find ) I dismissed it as it seemed too simple
and I don't trust M1!

But just today I made over 4% with it on just three trades whilst
waiting for my H4 AIMS trades to mature

and apart from these two systems I also have open two D1
positions on my strategy I have discussed previously

They are doing well but a bit slower obviously

My personal observation is not that one system is better
than another, I have never believed that.

But I do believe there are days when every system shines
and days when everything turns to dust.

In fact some traders trade by moon phases, maybe not
quite as wacky as it sounds.

But its all about psychology - I aquired an indicator called
'Robbery' because it makes you money so fast!- Highly
sophisticated algorhythms etc

It does seem to work very well and seemed to be worth
the $3,000 asking price.

It actually felt like I had a magic indicator that was
keeping me out of losing trades

until someone burst my bubble revealing you get the same
signals by noting when price crosses 8 EMA

and sure enough he was right. but a simple EMA with no $3,000 price tag -
doesn't have the same mystique, nor fire the imagination.

gbpaud.PNG

[baldeagle]

Mickey,

I must say I am truly grateful to you for your thoughts about trading so beautifully expressed in your journal. I am one who feels that we need to keep an open mind about the future whether it may be trading or life choices. I hope this carries some weight for those few who still respect the wisdom gained by those of us who have managed to live a little longer.

I too am grateful to Immy, Ray, Grant and others on the forum who have expanded my joy and life learning that trading gives us.

I hope you will continue to express your thoughts and challenge mine!

Ed

[baldeagle]

On second thought, I apologize for the reverse ageism comment.

Ed

[kiravon]

words don't always match the results.

I've had a number of teachers and some I love for their
amazing teaching ability and insights and humour -
but they haven't directly made me any money as a result.

Other teachers are the real deal, I paid $500 for one and he has
decades of experience as a top trader for the institutions

but he is so boring and longwinded. He has a video series and
I have never successfully even completed video 1 without
dropping off to sleep

actually it might be more useful for my insomnia

but I keep coming back to him in an attempt to not have
wasted my money - I just wish he could get a professional
teacher to explain his strategies.

Many members on this site have shared various profitable
tips. It is possible to eventually trade the tips even without
the basic AIMS

and thats where the problem lies - even if AIMS was the very worst
system in the world this is still an AIMS site, and the second problem
is numerical, - if you had hundreds of members following basic AIMS
the occasional Maverick might not be such a problem.

but when all the longstanding members are no longer posting, then
the few who are posting come under much closer scrutiny. so they
do have a responsibility to not bewilder others, particularly newbies
who are probably struggling anyway.

for example, I'm thinking out loud here -

I often lose on good trades because I believe it is reversing so
I close prematurely, only to then find price continues in
the original direction - same old story

now my suggestion to self -

how about, after price starts to move in my direction, on higher
time frames too, to switch to a Renko template?

Now I no longer have to see the frightening noise of the market.

I'm actually doing this now on EURGBP

It might prove to be a very shrewd idea from a psychological
point of view

but others might likely interpret it as an endorsement of Renko trading
which it isn't! So they might try their hand at Renko, and win or lose it has
absolutely nothing to do with AIMS! so it is just a distraction when all I
am really doing is keep a record of ideas that might help my personal trading.

Which would be all well and good if this was strictly my personal journal but
it isn't. That's something of a misnomer. When someone is designated
with some high status title and high number of postings he is probably
viewed by many, or some, as a leading light in all things AIMS related -
understandably

In my case nothing could be further from the truth.

As far as I know Ray is the only AIMS member to have been approached
by his broker to manage funds - his results were so outstanding - but
knowing that isn't helpful as it simply inspires you to drop everything
and follow his strategy which simply won't work for you, and in fact
would almost certainly lose you money.

It was Ray who was making the profit, not his strategy.

Its easy to get beguiled, but rarely profitable.

[Hill]

agree 100% on that. I also like your disclaimer:
This is a Personal Journal and may include personal trading insights. Any deviation I make from basic AIMS is not likely to be profitable to you. Please refer to AIMS authorized teachers for instruction. I am not a Forex trading instructor.

[kiravon]

not really a disclaimer, just a signature

but there is something that will help everyone with their AIMS
trading. it isn't a system, or indicator, it's a free eight part
video course by one of the best teachers I know. I hate his
system and even he admits its probably not that good. Without
question, AIMS is a far more reliable system than his.

but he is a multi million pound Fund Manager who knows all
about the psychology of trading and his insights are probably
the best in the business.

He is offering this course free to give you a sample of the
quality of his work in the hope that you may become a
customer in the future

His fees can be as high as 50,000 GBP and some have gladly
payed that. I recommend you pay nothing to anyone but
take advantage of any quality traing thats going free.

I am not an affiliate as I utterly detest them, so I hope
no one will sign up for anything except his free course-
no credit card needed, no sales pitch - total transparency

The introductory video is amazing!

You don't need systems or indicators ( yes we know that!)

you need psychology, discipline and money management?

He assures us these are also not what trading is about!!!!

its not even about fear and greed!

Actually all the above play their part in trading, but he
demonstrates very convincingly that trading is about

decision making

and thats where we all fall down!

and he goes on to prove it, to prove how in trading as in
life, we are so easily primed to make the wrong decision
time after time!

it starts to have a horrible ring of truth about it.

I haven't watched the full course yet but I know he's good.

coincidentally, I have already figured the only guaranteed
way to be successful with AIMS -

of all the hundreds of possible set ups that might be available
on any given day, pick only one, two at most, - simply wait
for that model text book set up and trade only that!

and that applies to any proven system.

It doesn't matter so much which is the best system, what matters
is cherry picking only the very best set ups.

and thats whats so hard!

so it is about decision making in the end - deciding when to trade
and when not to.

Sample - he makes the analogy of trading to wishing to be a tennis pro.
How to succeed? keep buying more and more equipment? ( or indicators )
you only need one racket.

Do you need to study all the rules of tennis - more tennis education will
lead to success? Ludicrous!

Likewise studying more about trading is a total waste of time!

This has been where I've gone wrong

filling your head full of junk hinders, it doesn't help

just getting out and practicing is the path to success

honing your skills

analyzing what you did right, what you did wrong

then, when you've got it down

rinse and repeat

which doesn't require discipline!

On H4 I've found something that keeps happening predictably,
price always moves around 15 pips, it can do what it wants
after that

I just take the 15 pips

Don't need indicators or any knowledge about trading

Its purely mechanical

You can do the same with AIMS - many have. find your
own little AIMS niche, tweak it a bit if necessary

rinse and repeat.

if 98% fail it surely can't be that simple!

actually, yes it is.
http://bit.ly/2gEJFD0

[Hill]

thanks. yeah, the biggest problem for trader is dealing with over-trading and using inappropriate lot sizes. if one can tackle those things, any system is winning system, ime.