Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

that's true on many levels
for a newbie overtrading is the deadliest sin.

For me at the moment I'm trading two different
systems and monitoring a third - it can get confusing
and stressful which is never good and violates AIMS'
'Prime Directive'

I have for example on one system, gone long on Daily AIMS
and also short on another H4 scalping system. I took two
profitable scalps that were successful but overall trend is
up and the AIMS trade is also very likely to win.

but here's the problem - you leave off for a while and come
back and find both long and short positions on the same chart
and it just looks crazy and bewildering - until you remember
why you opened the conflicting positions

another danger is being over exposed, which is where lot
sizing really becomes a make or break issue

[kiravon]

Because we have never heard of this before it is likely to
be ignored.

I'm not ignoring it and here's why:-

team in lead more defensive.JPG

we all know when a team is winning they all start to play more
defensively.

Why?

Because they remember most vividly all the prior games
where they were ahead but finally lost the game

and those memories of negative outcomes are the ones that are
dominant and INFLUENCE the DECISION MAKING PROCESS

The same psychology is evident in trading. 98% of traders lose
because of making wrong decisions and those decisions are
made on the basis of memories which are not always reliable
or to quote Mark Douglas, 'not always in our own best interest'

For example, we may have memories of closing our trades early
while it was still in profit which masquarades as a positive
memory, when in a trend following system if your future
decisions are influenced bu those 'positive' outcomes you
are dead in the water! You will fail as a trader

Successful trading is not about greed, fear and psychology
as such, but more specifically it is about Memory Prioritization
- of course the memories we recall and act upon do obviously
invoke emotions of fear and greed and that is loosely 'psychology'

but to hold this general belief about trading, whilst loosely true,
is missing the root specific issue

Memory Prioritization

I am on video one of the eight part series mentioned previously.
I don't find the psychologist to be the most personable or
entertaining teacher but he has coached billionaires from
all professions because this cuts across all endeavours
in human life

memory prioritization affects why you ask, or refrain from
asking, a girl to dance. it affects all your business decisions,
and why you may, or may not, exit a trade

Technically, memory and brain function is, broadly speaking
'Psychology' and it is known that success in trading is 80%
psychology.

but this free course is probably the most insightful I've
ever encountered, it gets right to the heart of the matter.

There is no trading systems being taught and there is
absolutely no attempt to sell you anything

This course is probably as valuable to a trader as is
keeping a journal

so 'logically', probably almost no one will watch it
which is a pity.

I remember Tony Robbins, at one of his seminars,
saying that it's often only when you have too much
pain that you start to make the changes.

Seeking the 'Holy Grail' and magic indicators becomes
very painful when year after year you are still not
consistently profitable

Eventually you either give up or completely change
your approach to trading, which may mean doing things
you've avoided doing for years

I still keep a daily journal on a forum for my non AIMS
trades with comments on how they might have been improved.

Sadly too many guys take such a short sighted view - for example,
they see a way to cheat the system - sign up for AIMS, grab the
indicators and run - cancelling any further payments.

How does that help them? It doesn't! and if this is you I can
guarantee that the indicators won't help you, they are only
a small part of the overall AIMS package

Before I joined AIMS I was extremely inconsistent, but during
my membership I have eventually become far more consistently
profitable, and its not a coincidence. It has very much to do
with keeping a journal and almost nothing to do with the
indicators, AIMS and non AIMS indicators are just tools, like a scalpel.

You probably would agree that owning a scalpel in itself would
not automatically make you successful at open heart surgery

The opportunity to receive professional coaching ( for as long
as it takes ) is priceless, but very few avail themselves of
it, and even fewer continue beyond their first few rents

It is truly staggering how so many fail to act in
their own best interests

So to start with, why not just upload screenshots of
your profitable trades? - just to test the water

then make a brief comment about the trade.

You may get suggestions on how you could have
optimized the trade - some of such suggestions
might be extremely valuable to you

As you gain confidence you might start to
keep a T20 - a record not so much of your
winning trades, but more importantly, a record
of how disciplined you were at sticking to your
rules.

Keeping a T20 is essential in training the mind
away from individual losing trades and focusing
on winning sequences

T20 has arguably been the biggest factor in
turning losing AIMS members into consistently
profitable traders.

You don't ever need to upload losing screenshots
unless you feel the feedback would be helpful.

Some feel that writing isn't their strong point -
but you hardly need to be Shakespeare to simply
record ' I bought EURUSD at break of AIMS with
cross of Zero on AO and made 25 pips '

That's all you need to say! how hard is that?

In several years of AIMS membership I have
never once read any comment which wasn't
helpful and constructive

Keeping a regular journal, especially T20, is
100 times more valuable to you than playing
around with any indicators

[kiravon]

Checking my positions I came across this!
The template isn't relevant, it not be more
sensible on any other template.

But what is going on!

I wasn't sure

but a little checking I discovered that I was long
my main scalping system with a very high probability
of winning, getting out before resistance, but short
on my old divergence system which quite likely
may not win which is why I am trading it with very
small position size - if it loses I keep the template
on a separate PC waiting for divergence to next occur
and trade at much higher lot size. The 'rescue' second
divergence trade is nearly always successful even if
the first divergence trade fails, although that has a 70%+
win rate with no Stop Loss.

So far this has been my most profitable system but the
idea of trading without a stop takes some getting used to
and is definitely not recommended.

However, it is not my main system and as we see it
is really cluttering up my chart and causing no little
confusion.


but you really need to keep track of what is going on

you really need a notebook handy just to remind yourself of
exactly why you took the trade

I have just closed the scalping long position as it was
showing signs of weakness which, by my own reckoning
should come as no big surprise as it is up against
a 70%+ winning system showing bearish divergence!!

I think I've been a bit slow here!

There is a strong case for, after finding what
system is most profitable, or best suits you. to just trade
that and keep everything nice and simple.

or maybe trade different systems with different brokers.

that actually does make a lot of sense.

but it doesn't really make sense to trade against divergence

Whatever we do, we need to be focused and not scattered,
and the more we trade the more there is to remember

Last week I clicked on the buy button by mistake - no
harm done but we do need to be calm , stress free
to avoid careless mistakes that cost money

confusion.PNG

[kiravon]

It was recently pointed out to me quite forcibly that
Stanford University had conducted exhaustive
tests on Forex indicators and the conclusion
was unequivocally they do not give any reliable
guide to future price direction.

I personally know how foolish it is to trade
into a major Support or Resistance level!

But apparently these levels are meaningless.

So I conducted my own experiment

I picked a random chart on fully zoomed out
Weekly time frame and without really being
able to discern individual bars I drew a few
horizontal lines completely randomly, no idea
where they were located on chart

Then I switched to H4 and zoomed in

What a revelation!!

Price was respecting these levels!

On the screenshot you even see Prior Resistance
becomes Support!

But these lines are just random!!

The guy I had the debate with is a multi million pound
Fund Manager and he insists that the only indicator
with any objectivity is Currency Strength

but it lags! It can't tell you what the Market will do in
the future, only how relatively strong currencies have
been in the past.

The only time I have found Currency Strength to be reliable
is when you have a very sharp divergence between two currencies,
but when that happens its just as obvious looking at the chart
of those two currencies, similarly it is just as obvious on just
about every other indicator!

Fractals show you that price didn't want to move beyond a certain
point in the recent past so a break of Fractal should be useful in a
trend following scenario.

Indicators do work. Even though Stanford University is correct.

Last ten days I have used three indicators to win 14 out of 15 trades.

I think that must be my best trading to date.

It is 'evidence' that indicators work!

No it isn't! It's proof that I believe indicators work and whereas belief
is powerful I don't seriously believe my beliefs make much difference
to the 82% of trading volume which is purely utilitarian, in other words
hundreds of billions of dollars traded with no regard to making a profit
or loss!

This is what moves the market and whoever is placing these trades
are not looking at moving averages or support levels or pivots

It seems that indicators in general are coincidental to price movement
eg price is trending and it retraces before resuming the trend. The
level it retraces to is quite random but will often come fairly close to
a Fib level

but you could alter those Fib levels to anything you want and you will
still find price respecting them!

I did another experiment. I randomly changed the Fib levels to be
non Fib ie 0, 17, 31, 40, 55, 67,81

As you see, they work just as well and if you could reconfigure
Ewaves, TZ1 would presumably be in a different place but I'm guessing
might still be just as profitable.

Ewaves and TZ1 seems to work perfectly well as it is, but
according to Stanford university, not for the reasons we think.

I'm not against Ewaves, or any other indicator, and I'm definitely
not against the profits that can be achieved with the help of
such indicators, and neither am I raining on anyone's parade

My last words to the Fund Manager referred to above was,

'If I keep getting presents in my stocking every Christmas,
why should I want to listen to you telling me there is no
obese guy climbing down my chimney every year?'

The reason AIMS members might not be successful is due
to trader failure not system failure.

There have been enough success stories to comfirm that.

One of the wise trading rules posted previously was ' My success
was due to my sitting not my thinking'

In other words, with enough practice and screen time you develop
a feel for the markets, you often know where price is going to go
without knowing.

Indicators may somehow find their way into that process

In the end you feel comfortable with a certain template

As Immy said previously, 'Its a way of making sense of the market'

The market itself may not always make sense, but if something
helps him to somehow make sense of it he will have an edge

This is actually the least objective part - how skillfully he
manages that edge is entirely objective, under his control,
and is the crucial factor that contributes to his, or our success

supres.JPG

fib.PNG

[kiravon]

Indicators or not, the winners keep on coming

There are significant areas and price does seem to
react to them ie break out or repelled (reversal)

I sold AUDUSD at break of Daily AIMS but the hourly chart is
interesting too.

Price retraced up exactly to 38.2% fib

It broke through the significant area indicated by maroon
box to the downside.

It then retested that area and in the process formed a new
AIMS

It then broke out of that new AIMS to the downside and then
retested AIMS.

I placed a Sell PO and overall I've got quite a bearish feel
about the chart.

TP is just above prior AIMS on the Daily chart which is
also a significant level.

I've only lost one trade in the last thirty which I hope is also
significant.

Trading is quite simple when you're in the zone, with clarity
of vision. Otherwise its more or less guesswork and gambling

aims.PNG

[kiravon]

Something I've noticed recently -

Some mentors can genuinely trade profitably
with a very simple strategy but that isn't
what they feed their followers

they have to make it complicated for marketing
purposes

in other words - 'there is always more to learn!'

usually at a price!

but it's total BS.

You do need experience, and you do need chart reading
skills, but it isn't complicated.

If it even begins to seem complicated, the newbie will persist

the pro will desist

yes, that is as profound as it sounds!

I can give you an example that is pure AIMS

the strategy should in theory make you immensely rich!

why won't it?

because in 98% of cases you will get in your own way.

we are all familiar with break of AIMS. That in itself is largely
irrelevant.

how about price closes past AIMS? - more significant but still
won't make you money.

but on the Daily, I've noticed that a close just over AIMS, typically
10 - 30 pips, will usually allow a quick scalp of 50 pips.

there are no hard and fast rules. but in a trending environment,
where you are definitely not trading straight into support or
resistance, - it does in fact usually work.

suppose it's an even more significant close after AIMS? 50+ pips beyond?

yes it may be more significant, but it may well have eaten most
of the move up!

Here is the problem -

you will soon note that this strategy can often yield 200 - 300 pips
profit

so why would you want to leave over 200 pips on the table?

because often it doesn't move that far before a major retrace
or even a reversal - but it is usually good for 50 pips.

So now we come to the second problem. - there will be countless
opportunities that seem to almost qualify.

they may lose! reality check!

If you wait patiently on the higher time frames for just a modest
close over AIMS it usually goes your way, in the short term at least.

It doesn't happen that often, so this is absolutely no good for
gamblers wanting a quick fix - it will soon blow your account.

I'm trying to put myself in the position of an AIMS newbie, four years
ago when I joined -

would this have been be an AIMS Holy Grail for me? or even profitable?

I'm fairly sure the answer is no

I would almost certainly have had to have added a bucket load of indicators etc etc

and add ons! ( fastest way to the poor house for a newbie!)

in other words I would have over complicated it beyond recognition

This isn't an especially remarkable system

but it does well demonstrate how patience can be so elusive, - this is
a problem that is usually best solved at great financial cost.

eventually you realize that impatience costs you dearly!

every pro knows that the actual system is the least important factor
to making consistent profits in trading.

There are countless approaches that will work if you are patient

but even the best system in the world won't save you from self sabotage

In the screenshot below you will see 'opportunities' marked with a cross.

and yet they all won spectacularly!

four years ago I would have been really hung up on that

as would most newbies

but that is only one screenshot. the set ups with the cross will sometimes
work out, sometimes not.

the set ups with a tick are far more consistent, and will give you a slow
but steady equity curve

are you a tortoise or a hare?

aims close.jpg

[kiravon]

Nice trade on EURCAD daily for 72 pips

ascending AIMS with rising AO after Monarch retrace.
compelling candlestick pattern after close over AIMS and
break out of descending trendline ( not shown )

TP 80 pips but trailed M5 and was stopped 8 pips shy
for 72 pips

eurcad.PNG

[kiravon]

I have really got to get this, and not merely pretend I
get it....

and it gets worse the more I win!

I come to expect it

Its a long way down!

If I have 30 or 40 winners and hardly no losers
I start to believe in my own invincibility

Which is great...

until the next really big losing run

How will I cope? when my whole world is falling apart?

So it really isn't about winning, its about having an edge

and that's all.

In horseracing, backing the favourite with a very short
price will usually win but you will lose because you won't
have an edge.

but think of a horse who came second or third last two races,
you study his form, he loves the mud and its a very wet day!

You notice the trainer has an average win rate but a very high
win rate at today's race course

Everything is looking good

His price is 6:1 but you see 12:1 is available on Betfair.

Will the horse win? No one knows, but he probably has better
than 6:1 chance of winning which makes 12:1 odds exceptional
value!

Should you take that price knowing he might not win?

Yes

because even $1 bets - in twelve identical races he might win only twice,
as indicated by bookmakers 6:1 price.

so you lose $10 but your two winners bring in $24, a net profit
of $14

So a pro would say ' he was worth a punt'

Trading has similarities with gambling in that there is risk, but you
can control that risk and you can have an edge.

In the screenshot below the CADJPY Daily. I don't know if the trade will
win but I know it's worth a punt

there is a lot of confluence

The weekly is moving down

and look at all the arrows

we have divergence

We have just broken out of Distribution Phase
into Mark Down

cross down over Zero

Perfect close after AIMS

followed by Bearish Inside bar

followed by Bearish Stalk bar

It has a much better than 50% chance of winning
with a 1:3 RR

It's worth a punt

If I just keep doing trades like this I will have an edge
and profit most months

but I will not always win. and I need to steel myself
for the losing runs.

That means finding the 'sweet spot', the lot size that doesn't hurt
when it loses.

I remember watching Warren Buffet once live on air.

the reporter informed him that one of his stocks had just crashed.

Warren just started cracking jokes about 'watching a grown man cry'

but he was obviously unfazed, to him it was just a rent

Something else I've just realized ( Captain's Log )

One AIMS member observed that once you get a break of AIMS it
will either win or lose, but rarely will it re enter AIMS and win

so logically, you might as well put SL where price broke AIMS,not
way above/below AIMS.

I actually haven't found that to be true, however I do appreciate
his input, as it does form the basis for SL positioning. There are indeed
times when price is unlikely to return to AIMS in the short term, so you
might as well avoid risking the entire AIMS box. you will then win or lose
but if you lose it won't hurt much.

this was the essence of Grant's methodology, always seeking to avoid big losses.
He didn't particularly win that much but he rarely, if ever lost very much which
is what gave him his edge.

If my emotional stabilty depends on never losing I am bound for the funny farm,
but if I can see where a set up has a distinct edge ( and I can ), and if I manage
risk intelligently so that losses and losing runs don't faze me, I can then be my
own Warren Buffet.

punt.PNG

[kiravon]

I put this together from various sources.
the split audio tracks might freak some
out, it can be a bit disconcerting

Also added Binaural Beats that actually
change the frequency of your brainwaves
making the mind more receptive to suggestion

The gist of the hypnosis is that ' You are trading in
the zone, - you wait patiently then pounce, - you don't hesitate'

all the stuff you would expect to hear

If you stick to the rules of your strategy, record your T20,
and listen to this MP3 two or three times a week, you are
pretty much guaranteed to be successful

It is very powerful!

Trading Hypnosis.mp3

[baldeagle]

Guess my last reply didn't get by the censors!

Thanks for the MP3. I hope it will en-train my sub-conscious to search out and find the best trades! Somewhere under the sound there will probably be a subliminal message, "Send....10....percent...of....your.....profits....to ...kiravon"!

Ed