I am keeping this journal and doing the T20 Batches because I have found out that I have lost my way and I am taking the bad trades. I doubt myself and I doubt the setups. I need to be more objective.
I have become an indiscipline trader so the only way to get good is to keep my journal public again.
Even after 10 years of trading, you can suddenly become "indisciplined". The only way forward is to get naked and take a bath in public.
It really is not about showing off (I mean I'm losing, what is there to show aye)... it's about GETTING good and it's about accountability.
Also, I want to feel like you all. I am no god of trading nor am I that good. I think I am just a mediocre trader. I have stopped m1 and I am only trading the hourly charts now.
In a way, I'm learning new things. There is so much more to trading the hourly charts than I expected. It sure is a lot of fun but for now, I am in a drawdown and that is NOT fun.
Risk to Reward Ratio is The Secret to Winning in Forex.
The way to win is to ensure you have a trading system with a high reward-to-risk ratio. The 1:5 average win rate is really the sweet spot.
How to calculate Breakeven Win Rate?
Very simple Add Risk + Reward and Dived 100 by that figure.
E.g. Risk is 1% and Reward is 5%. = 100/6 = 16.6% win rate is your Breakeven Winrate.
Is the probability of Getting 5R always the same for every trade?
The probability of winning a trade and Win rate are not the same things.
Winrate can change from time to time depending on the PHASE of the Market and your chosen time frame.
When you take a signal with a small stop loss and it appears during a CLEAR trending market then the probability of both a) winning and b) higher reward is HIGH.
In contrast, if the market is not moving (a tight trading range or overall trend is not present) then the probability of both winning and a higher reward is lower. Worst times to trade.
If the market is sideways and your stop-loss is wide, then the probability of a win will slightly improve due to a wider stop-loss by the risk to reward will be low (it sucks).
If the stop loss is TIGHT and it is a trading range, there will be a higher chance of getting stopped out i.e. the win rate will be very low but the risk to reward will be higher compared to a wider stop loss.
Best Times to Trade
But compare this to taking a wider stop loss entry within a trending market or taking a tight stop loss entry within a trending market. I would say the best type of trade is the one with a TIGHT stop loss, (to get bigger lot sizes) and within Clearly Trending Markets (Hot Markets) e.g. markets like the 2nd or 3rd day plays (USDJPY during 2022). The best market for this is the USD/JPY and the Indices.
The best Risk to Reward Ratio is the 1:5 Concept
As long as stop loss is less than or near 1ATR - 1.2ATR (less than 15 for USDJPY and EURUSD less than 20 for GBPUSD and less than 50 for DAX and NASDAQ) 1:5 is the best target point.
How to Get 1:10 Winners?
The breakeven win rate percentage for 1:10 trades is just 9%. Meaning you only have to win 1 trade within 10 trades to remain breakeven. In effect if you only win 3 times within 20 trades, you will still be in profit.
How to Get 10R Winners on USD/JPY?
The way to hit 10R winners on USDJPY is to always go for 10R targets when you get a seed or banana signal with a stop loss 10 pips or lower.
USDJPY has an ADR of around 100 pips. It can drop to 70 at times but recently as of June 2022, it stands at 135. This means that if you catch a 10 pips stop loss trade and it continues in the direction of the Daily time frame trend, you are highly likely to see a 70-150 pips move within today and the next day. In this case, you will hit your 10R target nicely. If stop loss is 20 then best to stick to 5R because you need 100 pips to move to get 5R and 200 pips for a 10R. It's not always possible to catch 200 peppers on USDJPY.
You can catch 200 pip winners on US30 all the time right? but there is a problem. You need around 100 pips to stop loss for US30 (DJIA). So to catch a 10R winner on US30 (DOW) is to catch trades that require 50 pips or less stop loss. Then you can expect to hit 5 to 10 R targets relatively easily within today and the next day.
What is my Trading Time Frame?
H1 Only
What is my Risk Per Trade? (Account Size $350,000)
If the Balance is above 0 then the Risk Per Trade is 1.0%
Drawdown Protection:
If the Balance is below 2% then 0.5% Risk Per Trade.
If the Balance is below -2% then 0.25% Risk Per Trade.
Positive Balance Advantage:
If the Balance is above 3% then 1.5% Risk Per Trade.
If the Balance is above 5% then 2% Risk Per Trade.
What are my Entry Setups:
Banana Signals within the following context
- Signal after A Clean Fresh Breakout of Tight Trading Range (No clear trend already in place)
- Banana Signal After a Breakout of Consolidation on a 2nd or 3rd Day of trend. (Clear Trend previous day)
As long as there is a valid signal
BUY Only when the Entry Level for the Banana or Seed Signal is above the Frankfurt Open Price and
SELL Only when the Entry Level for the Banana or Seed Signal is below the Frankfurt Open Price
Edited: 26 June 2022
https://witeboard.com/2dd83b10-e7e7-11e ... 34ae32cb11
Example of 2nd and 3rd Day Plays within a TREND
Trade Management:
Target is always set at 5R (at least)
Move SL to BE at +2R
Max Stop Loss Guide
EU Max SL 25(ish)
GU MAx 30(ish)
UJ MAx 20
DAX Max 50
US30 100
NASDAQ 50
What Markets Do I trade:
Update: 23 June 2022
6 Markets - EU GU UJ DAX (US30 and NAS100)
What is my Template:
5/10 ema and Banana Signals
Will I Take Trades on H4?
NO, I have changed my mind on this because H4 is making me flick and switch too much. I don't need to do that. I will stick to H1 signals. That's more than enough. (Updated 8 June 2022).
Will I Take Trades on M5 based on H1?
Yes, if I don't get an entry on H1 and the trend is clear I will try to get an M5/H1 entry but only with a quarter risk per trade.
What is the Ideal Number of Impulse Candles I look for?
The impulse wave can consist of a minimum of 2 and a max of 5 candles. Within this impulse, we can see a variety of formations from 2 trend candles to up to 4 trend candles. 2 to 3 Trend Candles are the best combination.
I Want to See
- TTTPPP
- TTTPP
- TTTP
- TTPPP
- TTPP
- TTP
- TP
- TRP
- TRRP
- TRTR
- TTRRP
- CRPP
- CC (Climactic Candles)
I want to Trade within Trends. What is the Current/Short term TREND?
When Price (close) is above the dashed line and the dashed line is above the solid line = UPTREND (short term)
When Price (close) is below the dashed line and the dashed line is below the solid line = DOWN TREND (Short term)
What is the Longer Term Trend?
Same as above but on the Daily Time Frame (the Next Higher Time Frame)
or
If the Short Term Trend is above or below 50ema.
What is the Ideal Number of pullback Candles I look for?
I look for 2 to 4 small pullback candles and signals
Will I trade the Waltz Signal on H1?
Yes, The waltz must have a clear TC followed by 1 or 2 seeds. The Waltz must be a setup after a TTR.
My Process Flowchart
PAY ATTENTION TO DAILY CANDLE HIGHS AND LOWS ... VERY POWERFUL
My favourite Pattern is TTTPP or TTP or TTPP
Index of Batches: Link to another Topic
Last Update:
11 July 2022: Trend Definition Added
26 June 2022: FO Open Price Filter
23 June 2022
Attachements:
…. I now see it was not the bannana setup but a short trade Anyway, was not a bannana for me 
