Trading Discussion

[immy]

Discuss Anything and Everything about Forex Trading here. I intend that all the things that don't fit into Journals, Q&A sections should come here. e.g. You just want to post a picture of a trade, share a trade, questions, etc. Lets keep this thread running!

[Bettina]

Hi Immy,
thanks for the new thread. I was just questioning, where to put my Elliott question. I several times had the problem that I see divergence too early and then miss the next wave 5.
The picture from today evening is a good example.

Attachment:

13-02-2012 Waves.png

This is a now hopefully complete impulse wave 1 - 5, where 3 itself has i - v subwaves ( even iii is visible as made of 5 waves ).
At the blue divergence, which now indicates wave v of 3 I thought : Ok, divergence, no longer shorts and I missed wave 5.

How can we see to which impulse wave a wave 5 = divergence belongs to and when is it over ?Afterwards I noticed, that FE could have told me. Is that the only possibility ? From the beginning to the end of the blue peak it's 122 candles, so looks sufficient for a whole cycle, but isn't ???

And I just see, that it does much more to the downside. 5 obviously is only i of 5.
So, long question, hope it is clear, what my uncertainty is.
Thanks in advance for your or other's view on that situation.
Bettina

[immy]

Bettina

Rule 1. Use AIMS Wave for Counting Waves not the Price.
Rule 2. AIMS Waves gives accurate picture when the bars/candles are between 100-140
Rule 3. Count Peak, Cross Divergence
Rule 4. Keep it simple, subjective. The more objective you become the more problems you'd see. (In Chaos Subjectivity is Objectivity)
Rule 5. Stay in the now, on the current time frame.

Having said the above, EW with AIMS Wave can be summarised in following few words.

Elliott Wave = Peak then Cross of Zero Line and Peak Again with Divergence

Wave 1 and 2 = When WAVES is close to Zero Line and Alligator is either turning around or better asleep. AIMS Boxes usually show 1-2 better than anything with the help of AIMS Waves
Wave 3 = The Easiest to See the difficult to catch. Wave 3 = Peak of AIMS WAVES simple
WAVE 4 = After Wave 3 when WAVES cross zero line it is the first requirement of confirmation of WAVE 4.
WAVE 5 = After 3 and 4 AIMS Waves create a new peak but with divergence.

Once the above is comple and you see a new peak, look only through 100-140 bars. Dont try to connect too many bars.

In chaos things are only 50% confirmed 50% of the time. e.g. when you see that it is Wave 3 (ungrounded assessment) it is only 50% right because the rest of the 50% will be confirmed when the next Wave 4 is 50% confirmed. The next 4 is then confirmed 100% only when the Wave 5 is 50% confirmed. and after wave 5 when there is price movement that does not make sense, confirms wave 5 as wave 5 because we usually have another larger degree wave 4 after a completed wave or else we get a reversal wave and a fresh count.

Z => C+Z2 The current even takes 50% feedback from the previous event and gives 50% feedback to the next event. The law of chaos.

I hope the above is right, I had too much to drink!

cheers

[Bettina]

Hi Immy,

thanks for your long reply. Yes, I think I understood. I feel guilty of always violating Rule 4 !
And it was really good to be reminded of the chaotic character of the markets. I always forget about that, though I'm reading the Mandelbrot/Hudson book about Fractals and Finance. There is something in my mind, which always thinks : a good system must be right ! And if something different happens, you look for objective reasons.
There's much truth within what you've written. Thanks again.

Bettina

[immy]

Bettina!

I believe trading can be methodical and can even be like a System. But the best form of trading is to trade within certain parameters. For me there is always a certain degree of discretion involved and intuition involved. People ask me how would I transfer my intuition to others, my answer is simple, I dont have to, everyone can have and develop intuition. The more Stress Free your mind is the more chances of intuition. After all we live in a universe where everything is connected. I blieve, we are all one, intuition is not a miracle it happens all the time. It serves me well. The success rate of intuition is also 50% but combined with solid rules it raises success rate to over 50%. The morning pages and 10min breathing meditations help me keep my creative side active!

"When there is something wrong" is what is wrong! There is nothing wrong. Everything in the universe the way it happens is supposed to have happened. Like Bill Williams says, "The market is where it is because that's where its supposed to be and its supposed to be there because that's where it is"

iMHO

cheers

[humpha]

Immy,
Not sure if you want this in the advanced section so please move if necessary. I am looking at the principal C technique and have included a screen shot, can you tell me if I've got it right, it's a 5 min chart. Just trying to train the eyes to see it. Cheers mate.

6-3-12,3.gif

[immy]

Immy,
Not sure if you want this in the advanced section so please move if necessary. I am looking at the principal C technique and have included a screen shot, can you tell me if I've got it right, it's a 5 min chart. Just trying to train the eyes to see it. Cheers mate.

6-3-12,3.gif

With the benefit of hindsight I can surely confirm that it is PC! My favourite PC pattern is when you find and see it before the cross of zero line while the gator is still awake and hungry. that for me becomes the 4th wave of the 3rd wave and hence a sort of a mid point! if it happens on m5 i'll be excited to trade a setup on m1 in that direction!

cheers

Immy

ps: Principle C eBook, is located and available for download in the Advanced Techniques part of the Premium Section!

[humpha]

Thanks Immy,
I am seeing principle C often and understanding it can give you an edge in the aims wave knowledge, I have attached a shot of the AUD/USD 1hr chart, comments appreciated -
Looks like a principal C seting up after a possible wave 3
If it breaks the C again we cold possibly see a trend reverse - do you think the same?
Why I ask is the AUD has been range bound between 1.05 and 1.075 for some time and is at that support area now.

8-3-12.gif

[immy]

Thanks Immy,
I am seeing principle C often and understanding it can give you an edge in the aims wave knowledge, I have attached a shot of the AUD/USD 1hr chart, comments appreciated -
Looks like a principal C seting up after a possible wave 3
If it breaks the C again we cold possibly see a trend reverse - do you think the same?
Why I ask is the AUD has been range bound between 1.05 and 1.075 for some time and is at that support area now.

8-3-12.gif

Hi

Sorry for the delay in reply. We can see that it did violate PC which meant that it was not PC formation rather it was the 4th wave of the current time frame, which was H1 in the picture above or below attached by me.

PC is a way to find out the Wave C of the Wave 4 of the Wave 3 of the current time frame or Wave C of the Wave 2 of the current time frame. I dont look for PC after I have seen a clear Wave 3, because after a clear Wave 3 of my current time frame I'd most probably be seeing Wave 4 of the current time frame and when price goes in to Wave 4 of the current time frame, I'd either stop trading, go a step Up to higher time frame and wait or go down a step or two to catch the mini waves.

I hope it makes sense

cheers

[humpha]

Thanks Immy - Great explanation