Robbie's Log of Pain, Pleasure and more Pain

[oldiebutgoodie]

I’m not good with being visible to the masses and usually shun away from it but in the hope I may help others I will do my best to provide some input.

First, I must start with an apology to Imran. From day 1 I have given him a very hard time over his program and software so, Imran, I APOLOGIZE.

I trade for a living having traded Futures & Commodities since 1992 and Forex since 2001. My success is on the longer time frames, the Daily and Weekly. My weakness is on the shorter time frames, M15 and shorter where I am not consistent, losing more than winning. Wanting something to do during the day, I have been looking for a method to put me in the Winner’s Circle and bought the AIMS Premium package. I wasn’t sure this would work for me but led on by the posts of successful trades on the Home page, gave it a go.

Living in California is a disadvantage in trading for me since we are 3 hours behind New York. I don’t normally get to my computer until 8:30am/9am my time which means trading in New York is basically finished for the day. To do this short time frame nonsense I have been getting up at 6am which gives me about 2 to 3 hours of New York trading.

The other disadvantage I have is that I’m not used to being zoomed in to the candles so close. For my regular trading I am zoomed out to give me at least 12 months of candles so I can tell straightaway what the trend is.

The major disadvantage though for me is the pressure of the faster time frame on my mind. I used to get hot sweats and stomach cramps trading Futures & Commodities live but thankfully, those days are behind me. I just cannot get in sync with the 1 minute charts so the 5 minute is as short as I can go – and even that is a challenge.

Anyway, today is July 4th so I thought I would see if London were still taking price down so I got up at 7am, the green line on my 5 minute chart. I know the trend is down from my daily trading so all I was looking for was a place to go short. The gator configuration on the 5 minute chart also confirmed that as down as well as away from the purple pimpernel.

I saw there was a pin bar against the trend 8 candles back and that the action off it was stopped at the blue gator line which is where resistance is (red line). Following the stall at resistance, I saw there was a red dot above a long bearish candle and had I been up in time, would have gone short below it. There was another stall at resistance at 7:05am which produced a doji at resistance which is one of my Daily set ups so I went short under that with my stop above the swing high at 1.2573. Sorry Imran, I haven’t bought into your boxes.

This was followed by a hanging man and a long bearish candle with a pink dot above it (must learn what these dots mean). This was then followed by 3 white soldiers (green on our charts), another of my Daily set ups, so I expected a bearish candle to follow which it did with a big bearish outside bar, yet another of my Daily set ups so I added short below it and then………………..all hell broke loose as price plummeted. I know enough to take my profits and run after an extended move but still waited just in case price continued down and then got out above the next green candle.

This was equivalent to 12 days trading for me and seemed like the longest hour ever so exhausted and tired, I gave up and had breakfast.

I’m sorry this is not total AIMS trading but, I AM using the gator and may trade the dots when I understand why they are there and what they are supposed to tell me. I understand the purpose of the boxes but I understand price behavior better in a trend.

I guess I was lucky to catch a trend 5 minutes after opening my charts. Thank you America!

[Herbert]

Robbie, i really enjoyed reading your PA analysis amidst the AIMS template. Please do some more, I am a keen learner of your application.

Where the dots are concerned, if you have not gone through the forum, here is a forum link on some explanations:
http://www.itradeaims.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=501

Being a PA trader, you may also simply just want take a closer look at the dots and see for yourself how they translate candle interaction Hi/Low and Close across the alligator individual lines.

Regards
Herbert

[oldiebutgoodie]

Thanks for the link, Herbert.

Got to my computer at 6:30am my time (green line), saw the 5 minute action was over with wave 5 so took a look at 1 minute. Drew support at 1.2363 and waited for corrective wave a.

Price stalled at 1.2384 at 61.8% fib retrace and saw a doji inside bar and instead of trading it as I normally do, waited for the next bearish bar in an attempt to follow the rules. This came and closed below the gator at the AIMS box so entered short below it with a target of 1.2364, one pip above established support at wave 5.

Since I was already experimenting on 1 minute, thought I would give the double arrows a go so added on short below the second double arrow with the same target. This 1 minute trend was down and seemed destined to test support again so I wasn’t worried about taking the short inside the box.

Pretty simple but 1 minute is horrible – too fast and not enough reward for the pain. Makes 5 minute look like a walk in the park.

Went back to my Daily charts and since price was at weekly and monthly long term support closed most of my short positions just leaving a few runners with locked in profit with stops at 1.2555 in case the market has a rush of blood to get to 1.23

I’m not really sure these few pips are worth my getting up so early, especially after July 4th celebrations.

[Herbert]

Robert, it sure was worth getting up, if only for me reading your thought process. Certainly a pleasure moment

Good call on the S/R level drawn in and 61.8 fib converging. That certainly was a nice clear abc retrace to suit. I still have to get my confidence on the specific candles: ie doji in this case. I suppose in conjunction with S/R and fib level combined with a clear abc, it takes on good significance. In turn, it gives a lot more value to alligator position as well.

Another reference for you in the AIMs world, referring the abc retrace, also called Principle C: check it out here if not done so already: http://www.itradeaims.net/forum/viewtop ... f=34&t=618

Good one :-bd
Herbert

[immy]

Robert

Welcome to the AIMS world. I'm glad that you have started a journal. I looked forward to more of your trades and I'm sure all of us can benefit from your decades of experience. I see that you are big on candle patterns. This would mean you pay attention to each candle and that could be a tedious job on m1, i know that for sure. For me, I look at a cluster of candles and how they formed the boxes. I don't do candle to candle analysis as a daily trader would do. Rather I look at a chunk of PA and check the AIMS Boxes highs and lows.

The double arrow template is a beta version for now. Steve is working on recreating a whole new indicator (re-writing it) so we could incorporate the entrie logic in to one indicator instead of attaching two. I'd like to note that the double arrow template is specifically designed for M5's. It enables me to catch H1 trends on M5. A double arrow on m5 would mean, Gator on H1 and M30 are open in this direction. Each time I see an arrow on m5, I switch to H1 and analyse the strength and health of the trend. e.g. an arrow may appear in the beginning, mid or at the end of a trend/move/wave on h1. I wont take the ones that appear at the end.

I really enjoyed your posts. Hopefully there will be more to read. If you find M1 to be too busy, I'd firstly suggest give it some time, I hope within no time and it would become a boring exercise. I and I'm sure Grant will agree with me, get extremely bored on M1, there just isn't enough action. So now I watch 3 pairs on m1, (8pairs on m5 too) and still I fall asleep. So our eyes adapt with time. If however after a few weeks you still find it to be too busy, I'd suggest trading M5 or M15 wiht 3-6 pairs. Trade the very best of the setups and using your knowledge of candles and patterns and the higher time frame you'd be able to catch some very good intra-day moves.


Looking forward to trading with you soon!

cheers

[oldiebutgoodie]

Late getting up today as it was NFP day and I wanted to let the dust settle before doing anything. When I opened up my chart at the green line we were already in the corrective wave 4 after the NFP move so knew we had wave 5 left to go.

Although the alert had already kicked out 3 double arrows my first task was to draw the support line under wave 3 at 1.2317. A quick eyeball of the chart showed wave 4 to be a complex rather than simple wave so did not attempt to try and figure out the end of wave c. Instead I decided to go short “if” we got a close below wave 3 support at 1.2317. We did get a close below 1.2317 but with little momentum so decided to wait for a second close below.

The second close came but again with little momentum and with today being Friday and the BRN 1.23 only 11 pips away from my entry, decided I didn’t want to mess with this
.
BRNs are not what they used to be years ago so I don’t care about them except in this case when they are at a long term low, they ARE important.

Price is now firmly held by the 1.23 long term low and will just trade sideways until more news comes in so my week-end starts here.

I did take a look at GBPUSD but since it too is messing around support didn’t like it.

[immy]

Hi

Please dont start new tops. You already have a journal running just reply to the same topic. Moving this post to the your journal now.

cheers

Happy trading and have a great weekend!

[oldiebutgoodie]

Sorry, I thought "new topic" meant new topic within my journal.

[oldiebutgoodie]

Noticed around NY lunch time that price had closed below 1.23 so decided to see if there was any action left.

Price rallied back ending with a pin bar above the gator so I waited for it to go below and then got a double arrow. Thinking this could be a fake out I didn’t enter until price broke below the pin bar low of 1.2295. Price then stalled and tested my entry level again before continuing down to 1.2266.

I expected a small pullback to the green gator but this was bigger than I thought as it moved to 1.2281 into the gator telling me this was another corrective wave 4. When price started falling again I slammed my stop to 1.2282 thinking if this was wave a, wave c will be bigger and will take more of my profits.

As expected I was stopped out at 1.2282. The snapshot of the chart was taken mid-trade.

Price continued in another complex wave 4 and knowing there “should” be a wave 5 to follow, tried to work out waves a, b and c. Unable to do so but noticing that price was contained by the gator, decided to go short below the AIMS box and where the black diamond was.

With it being noon in NY and traders not usually trading at this time on a Friday, did not have much hope of wave 5 exceeding wave 3 so entered my take profit at 1.2269, 1 pip above the close of the lowest red candle.

I screwed up on my first trade as my lot size was only 0.1, a mini lot, which was left over from my GBPUSD short add on; I normally trade in multiples of standard lots (when I know what I am doing).

I put my stop loss at 1.2285, 2 pips above the AIMS box. Price rallied again only to be contained by the blue gator line and, 8 candles later, a double arrow appeared. I did consider adding another short here but momentum had died off considerably so I was concentrating on making sure this one trade ended in profit.

Price finally reached TP at 1.2269

This is too much pain and work for a few pips ……………………..but I love it!

[oldiebutgoodie]

Something must have spooked NY as traders were still active after lunch as they drove price back down again. Unfortunately I wasn’t at my computer to catch the start of it but did watch and saw price stop within 1 pip of the eWave 61.8% target.

Since then, of course, the projections have changed but I have tried to reproduce it as best I can.

If the eWave is going to be as accurate as this, then I am going to pay much more attention to it.

Well done SNorm!